{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ca8baa6-579f-489a-bdf0-5b3c3e300970", "symbol": "DIM", "name": "Sartorius Stedim Biotech S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 75.729, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.305, "architecture_energy": 7.048, "architecture_maturity": 26.673, "architecture_confidence": 45.11, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.25, "rotation_up": 35.16, "upward_expansion": 31.61, "deceleration": 54.45, "rotation_down": 34.33, "downward_expansion": 26.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 175.220001, 175.820001, 173.936322, 173.116411 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 178.600006, "trend_reference": 175.302312, "distance_from_trend": 0.018811, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 196.464682, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090931, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.129256, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007022, "excess_performance": -0.181269, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018811, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048223, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090931, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093852, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211293, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048439, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007022, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.688581, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.688581, "dry_up": 4.969262, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064691, "annualized_volatility": 0.433223, "from_high_reference": -0.194377, "from_low_reference": 0.175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 175.302312, "fair_value_reference": 196.464682, "structural_low": 152.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.010255, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.034805, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.110985, "worst_return": -0.153526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.002049, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.060118, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.149619, "worst_return": -0.210402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.050433, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.173663, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035895, "worst_return": -0.258427, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115581, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.158569, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082303, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038349, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", 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173.013333, 171.434546, 170.145227, 173.858001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 179.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.3, "trend": 180.559933, "fair_value": 198.908349, "relative_strength": -22.446372, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.705431, "energy": 3.668109, "activity_lines": [ 174.52, 173.423636, 171.033506, 173.717517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 183.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.3, "trend": 179.821367, "fair_value": 198.669254, "relative_strength": -18.926708, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.692878, "energy": 7.272162, "activity_lines": [ 177.506669, 175.814547, 172.283638, 173.913651 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 186.399994, "volume": 335, "typical_volume": 17.05, "trend": 179.232569, "fair_value": 198.418289, "relative_strength": -15.501778, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.897924, "energy": 35.854155, "activity_lines": [ 181.166667, 178.18, 173.782878, 174.338078 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 165.899994, "volume": 578, "typical_volume": 45.95, "trend": 177.897363, "fair_value": 197.71934, "relative_strength": -25.360573, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.749093, "energy": 20.472481, "activity_lines": [ 177.299998, 176.42909, 173.306435, 173.477912 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 170.300003, "volume": 57, "typical_volume": 48.8, "trend": 176.605913, "fair_value": 197.021316, "relative_strength": -22.887091, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.801702, "energy": 10.088514, "activity_lines": [ 174.733332, 175.358181, 173.248662, 172.98776 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 178.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 48.8, "trend": 175.302312, "fair_value": 196.464682, "relative_strength": -21.129256, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.305431, "energy": 7.047766, "activity_lines": [ 175.220001, 175.820001, 173.936322, 173.116411 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }