{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ca8f090-af74-4385-a6e4-d7efa7aac822", "symbol": "UGAS", "name": "WisdomTree Gasoline", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.465, "architecture_energy": 55.938, "architecture_maturity": 9.675, "architecture_confidence": 72.696, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.71, "rotation_up": 66.43, "upward_expansion": 80.54, "deceleration": 53.28, "rotation_down": 13.02, "downward_expansion": 11.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.874666, 74.002181, 73.775666, 71.463011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 70.900002, "trend_reference": 66.203834, "distance_from_trend": 0.070935, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.433622, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.378476, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.708723, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.503233, "excess_performance": 0.332342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070935, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1668, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.378476, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190749, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.077087, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.289166, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.503233, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.433535, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2147, "relative_activity": 0.584353, "balance": 0.433535, "dry_up": 0.518827, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063459, "annualized_volatility": 0.494646, "from_high_reference": -0.157857, "from_low_reference": 0.716915 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.203834, "fair_value_reference": 51.433622, "structural_low": 46.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.003418, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.026811, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.449534, "worst_return": -0.146303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.052871, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.059712, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.616149, "worst_return": -0.142185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.003831, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.066908, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.738884, "worst_return": -0.170937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.032036, "energy": 19.902368, "activity_lines": [ 69.083998, 70.788181, 71.655429, 67.875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 79.68, "volume": 553, "typical_volume": 5369.6, "trend": 62.833667, "fair_value": 50.959647, "relative_strength": 27.572589, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.645617, "energy": 32.903852, "activity_lines": [ 72.567999, 72.02709, 72.584238, 69.043646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 81.099998, "volume": 1177, "typical_volume": 4749.65, "trend": 64.114167, "fair_value": 51.143365, "relative_strength": 29.021338, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.321045, "energy": 62.31396, "activity_lines": [ 75.931998, 73.476908, 73.504571, 70.222119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.769997, "volume": 3748, "typical_volume": 4346.6, "trend": 65.322, "fair_value": 51.320224, "relative_strength": 22.139252, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.614297, "energy": 73.266051, "activity_lines": [ 77.411998, 74.35418, 73.994904, 71.10314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.900002, "volume": 2147, "typical_volume": 3674.15, "trend": 66.203834, "fair_value": 51.433622, "relative_strength": 7.708723, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.465096, "energy": 55.937542, "activity_lines": [ 75.874666, 74.002181, 73.775666, 71.463011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }