{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0caabb4d-4f9c-44ed-8c18-5020592a4637", "symbol": "DYFI", "name": "IDX DYNAMIC FIXED INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.141, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.99, "architecture_energy": 42.419, "architecture_maturity": 4.14, "architecture_confidence": 88.972, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.47, "rotation_up": 16.9, "upward_expansion": 10.39, "deceleration": 38.5, "rotation_down": 56.22, "downward_expansion": 81.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.596336, 22.618552, 22.639424, 22.656896 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.66, "trend_reference": 22.699797, "distance_from_trend": -0.001753, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.243058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.018745, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.766942, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008725, "excess_performance": -0.196179, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001753, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000754, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.018745, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00435, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127669, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035683, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008725, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.994149, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66428, "relative_activity": 2.149707, "balance": 1.994149, "dry_up": 1.079036, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005262, "annualized_volatility": 0.033294, "from_high_reference": -0.015291, "from_low_reference": 0.014483 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.699797, "fair_value_reference": 22.243058, "structural_low": 22.408084, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.025051, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011433, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008922, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005092, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-01-12", "close": 22.385834, "volume": 850018, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -67.743664, "energy": 49.771216, "activity_lines": [ 22.605275, 22.633158, 22.645981, 22.670596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.5452, "volume": 22094, "typical_volume": 29238.35, "trend": 22.704945, "fair_value": 22.239947, "relative_strength": -9.161518, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.718673, "energy": 56.66853, "activity_lines": [ 22.577093, 22.614874, 22.637172, 22.659796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.66, "volume": 66428, "typical_volume": 30900.95, "trend": 22.699797, "fair_value": 22.243058, "relative_strength": -12.766942, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.990403, "energy": 42.418692, "activity_lines": [ 22.596336, 22.618552, 22.639424, 22.656896 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }