{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0caad2b0-c9a0-45d2-883a-0a976ac0de5e", "symbol": "CCHHL", "name": "Country Club Hospitality & Holidays Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.685, "architecture_energy": 24.42, "architecture_maturity": 30.816, "architecture_confidence": 94.043, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.2, "rotation_up": 19.11, "upward_expansion": 1.81, "deceleration": 48.38, "rotation_down": 46.54, "downward_expansion": 75.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.815333, 12.831818, 13.052476, 13.061806 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.69, "trend_reference": 13.153, "distance_from_trend": -0.035201, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.961923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.204983, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.404818, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.042264, "excess_performance": 0.001445, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035201, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06555, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.204983, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125992, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124048, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062684, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042264, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.700783, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120132, "relative_activity": 0.855587, "balance": 0.700783, "dry_up": 0.697783, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075468, "annualized_volatility": 0.443163, "from_high_reference": -0.365183, "from_low_reference": 0.265204 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.153, "fair_value_reference": 15.961923, "structural_low": 10.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.028868, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.043983, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.08608, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.109853, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.149351, "worst_return": -0.232308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.0375, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.130641, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.155844, "worst_return": -0.165447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.146468, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.095238, "worst_return": -0.240117, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037234, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111765, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.433673, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175781, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.306885, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03959, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084919, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.21305, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073678, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043099, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009045, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.099206, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.108861, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.110098, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.9, "volume": 917329, "typical_volume": 675778.7, "trend": 7.241667, "fair_value": 6.642308, "relative_strength": -1.018557, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"relative_strength": -12.413985, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.316192, "energy": 27.498279, "activity_lines": [ 12.874, 12.986545, 13.141905, 13.194602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.7, "volume": 123310, "typical_volume": 156605.9, "trend": 13.354667, "fair_value": 15.866667, "relative_strength": -13.153296, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.812796, "energy": 32.847577, "activity_lines": [ 12.812, 12.899091, 13.107476, 13.146989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.74, "volume": 63799, "typical_volume": 155083.5, "trend": 13.273667, "fair_value": 15.903141, "relative_strength": -10.22165, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.825689, "energy": 28.366569, "activity_lines": [ 12.78, 12.847273, 13.080524, 13.107333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.08, "volume": 84659, "typical_volume": 149133.6, "trend": 13.202, "fair_value": 15.937628, "relative_strength": -9.63797, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.567771, "energy": 18.200962, "activity_lines": [ 12.876, 12.873636, 13.087667, 13.094839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.69, "volume": 120132, "typical_volume": 140408.9, "trend": 13.153, "fair_value": 15.961923, "relative_strength": -12.404818, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.685058, "energy": 24.419666, "activity_lines": [ 12.815333, 12.831818, 13.052476, 13.061806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }