{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0cabc5d4-3205-42b5-b02f-9ad171070da0", "symbol": "8409", "name": "EBM Technologies Incorporated", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.666, "architecture_energy": 76.012, "architecture_maturity": 77.077, "architecture_confidence": 86.199, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 14.79, "upward_expansion": 16.31, "deceleration": 38.57, "rotation_down": 75.14, "downward_expansion": 94.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.386667, 18.651818, 19.0, 19.369247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 18.1, "trend_reference": 19.856667, "distance_from_trend": -0.088467, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.634936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.200351, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.503348, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.106173, "excess_performance": -0.547545, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088467, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04627, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.200351, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029528, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.395033, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022203, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106173, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.961386, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24001, "relative_activity": 0.332735, "balance": 0.961386, "dry_up": 0.45475, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034637, "annualized_volatility": 0.139162, "from_high_reference": -0.30916, "from_low_reference": 0.011173 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.856667, "fair_value_reference": 22.634936, "structural_low": 17.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.004184, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": -0.034884, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.147196, "worst_return": -0.101833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.1003, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.306667, "worst_return": -0.083933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007241, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.149005, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.361111, "worst_return": -0.101176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018987, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.178988, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027273, 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19.713871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.5, "volume": 35100, "typical_volume": 79394.7, "trend": 20.108333, "fair_value": 22.782051, "relative_strength": -36.283069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.960867, "energy": 49.513277, "activity_lines": [ 18.773333, 18.928182, 19.26, 19.603441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.35, "volume": 29104, "typical_volume": 73038.0, "trend": 19.971667, "fair_value": 22.701282, "relative_strength": -37.429005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.376593, "energy": 62.641257, "activity_lines": [ 18.593333, 18.806364, 19.135952, 19.49 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 18.1, "volume": 24001, "typical_volume": 72132.45, "trend": 19.856667, "fair_value": 22.634936, "relative_strength": -39.503348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.666072, "energy": 76.01225, "activity_lines": [ 18.386667, 18.651818, 19.0, 19.369247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }