{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0cb200b5-0c69-4cf4-8dbb-5651cf08e3a3", "symbol": "139270", "name": "Mirae Asset TIGER Financials ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.469, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.554, "architecture_energy": 8.86, "architecture_maturity": 14.223, "architecture_confidence": 58.609, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.77, "rotation_up": 32.79, "upward_expansion": 50.59, "deceleration": 75.7, "rotation_down": 23.35, "downward_expansion": 23.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 16918.484115, 17024.48505, 17034.156548, 16875.746547 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16890.0, "trend_reference": 16480.037565, "distance_from_trend": 0.024876, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10003.32692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.688438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.866049, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.109017, "excess_performance": -0.120812, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024876, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103889, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.688438, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243495, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04866, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.217822, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109017, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.485827, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104217, "relative_activity": 0.451882, "balance": 0.485827, "dry_up": 1.161605, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086168, "annualized_volatility": 0.378328, "from_high_reference": -0.099325, "from_low_reference": 0.547943 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16480.037565, "fair_value_reference": 10003.32692, "structural_low": 14076.763756, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.013283, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.001197, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.151751, "worst_return": -0.141593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.024909, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.073274, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.288807, "worst_return": -0.108049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047454, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.08334, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.351461, 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"energy": 20.421061, "activity_lines": [ 17167.800521, 17180.632564, 17059.760784, 16818.109012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16545.0, "volume": 554709, "typical_volume": 235016.35, "trend": 16336.227539, "fair_value": 9929.951047, "relative_strength": -12.06119, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.454988, "energy": 12.081558, "activity_lines": [ 17004.363411, 17064.331534, 17032.512082, 16840.019292 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16890.0, "volume": 104217, "typical_volume": 230628.8, "trend": 16480.037565, "fair_value": 10003.32692, "relative_strength": -4.866049, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.554141, "energy": 8.85961, "activity_lines": [ 16918.484115, 17024.48505, 17034.156548, 16875.746547 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }