{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0cc7d0df-5d05-47a8-84bd-55281ba84494", "symbol": "601187", "name": "Xiamen Bank Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 88.603, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.807, "architecture_energy": 10.95, "architecture_maturity": 16.856, "architecture_confidence": 89.594, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 71.9, "rotation_up": 45.85, "upward_expansion": 35.87, "deceleration": 44.32, "rotation_down": 21.86, "downward_expansion": 17.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.401333, 7.296256, 7.296013, 7.330388 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.25, "trend_reference": 7.339025, "distance_from_trend": -0.01213, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.792649, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251586, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.418233, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.035714, "excess_performance": 0.078918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01213, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001472, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.251586, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066929, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.024182, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056262, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035714, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.162103, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85258844, "relative_activity": 1.233186, "balance": 1.162103, "dry_up": 1.440981, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065936, "annualized_volatility": 0.339806, "from_high_reference": -0.121212, "from_low_reference": 0.186073 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.339025, "fair_value_reference": 5.792649, "structural_low": 6.63, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.002763, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.002688, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.074954, "worst_return": -0.050656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.047143, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.070411, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.115888, "worst_return": -0.029617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.130769, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.092909, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.160182, "worst_return": 0.01613, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.058978, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.039222, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.145926, "worst_return": -0.02797, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077486, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030521, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016514, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.248691, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081871, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089905, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08982, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051328, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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7.79, "volume": 83078732, "typical_volume": 70026172.2, "trend": 7.342025, "fair_value": 5.775192, "relative_strength": 13.080236, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.004755, "energy": 13.64127, "activity_lines": [ 7.398, 7.298149, 7.307112, 7.336325 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.25, "volume": 85258844, "typical_volume": 69137043.15, "trend": 7.339025, "fair_value": 5.792649, "relative_strength": 2.418233, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.807089, "energy": 10.949833, "activity_lines": [ 7.401333, 7.296256, 7.296013, 7.330388 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }