{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0cce10cb-f58f-4ee8-81cf-eb3c22f99770", "symbol": "LSIL", "name": "WisdomTree Silver 2x Daily Leveraged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.46, "architecture_energy": 59.998, "architecture_maturity": 58.741, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.31, "rotation_up": 26.01, "upward_expansion": 10.52, "deceleration": 54.88, "rotation_down": 58.67, "downward_expansion": 86.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.722533, 11.080727, 13.347519, 15.340232 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.99, "trend_reference": 19.257167, "distance_from_trend": -0.377375, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.797394, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.223795, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.871351, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.395239, "excess_performance": -0.56613, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.377375, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117666, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.223795, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.008397, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.408714, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.554555, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.395239, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.411211, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 255077, "relative_activity": 1.492061, "balance": 0.411211, "dry_up": 1.47963, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.199679, "annualized_volatility": 0.989658, "from_high_reference": -0.816947, "from_low_reference": 0.575558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.257167, "fair_value_reference": 9.797394, "structural_low": 9.173, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.020096, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.005199, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.315741, "worst_return": -0.397456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.000163, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.003531, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.474684, "worst_return": -0.26813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.145255, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028226, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.970274, "worst_return": -0.392106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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10.764733, 12.362145, 14.810271, 17.192686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.522, "volume": 337560, "typical_volume": 182488.85, "trend": 20.365133, "fair_value": 9.715484, "relative_strength": -46.135221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.231052, "energy": 79.433799, "activity_lines": [ 10.5332, 11.742527, 14.23991, 16.527488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.851, "volume": 85648, "typical_volume": 178467.45, "trend": 19.878333, "fair_value": 9.748532, "relative_strength": -49.920135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.837995, "energy": 74.693121, "activity_lines": [ 10.239733, 11.142582, 13.663205, 15.849157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.99, "volume": 255077, "typical_volume": 170956.1, "trend": 19.257167, "fair_value": 9.797394, "relative_strength": -40.871351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.459548, "energy": 59.997914, "activity_lines": [ 10.722533, 11.080727, 13.347519, 15.340232 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }