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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.929, "architecture_energy": 79.586, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 66.284, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.47, "rotation_up": 76.74, "upward_expansion": 91.85, "deceleration": 47.62, "rotation_down": 14.29, "downward_expansion": 16.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 100.041341, 99.959358, 99.855412, 99.727228 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 100.135, "trend_reference": 99.513403, "distance_from_trend": 0.006246, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 94.644487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058012, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.781775, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.012249, "excess_performance": -0.113376, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006246, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00541, "read": "Rising" 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67.801883, "energy": 60.130094, "activity_lines": [ 99.822396, 99.812384, 99.713658, 99.56169 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 99.921363, "volume": 40506, "typical_volume": 66331.45, "trend": 99.363239, "fair_value": 94.407564, "relative_strength": -7.167248, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.017279, "energy": 52.77441, "activity_lines": [ 99.846968, 99.839833, 99.744484, 99.600916 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 99.990122, "volume": 49930, "typical_volume": 67737.6, "trend": 99.412626, "fair_value": 94.48654, "relative_strength": -6.327709, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.417747, "energy": 60.071284, "activity_lines": [ 99.894061, 99.872563, 99.77807, 99.641361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 100.0716, "volume": 38079, "typical_volume": 68741.6, "trend": 99.463025, "fair_value": 94.565675, "relative_strength": -6.976246, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.762667, "energy": 69.279061, "activity_lines": [ 99.969316, 99.913588, 99.815632, 99.683875 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 100.135, "volume": 25900, "typical_volume": 68676.8, "trend": 99.513403, "fair_value": 94.644487, "relative_strength": -9.781775, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.929187, "energy": 79.586262, "activity_lines": [ 100.041341, 99.959358, 99.855412, 99.727228 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }