{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0cd7d84e-444f-401e-ba39-3f223fc900ba", "symbol": "CSKR", "name": "iShares VII PLC - iShares MSCI Korea ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.572, "architecture_energy": 23.68, "architecture_maturity": 65.302, "architecture_confidence": 74.77, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.19, "rotation_up": 14.67, "upward_expansion": 42.4, "deceleration": 87.93, "rotation_down": 46.97, "downward_expansion": 36.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 395.446004, 421.731092, 428.30876, 407.076859 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 395.480011, "trend_reference": 375.296332, "distance_from_trend": 0.053781, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 200.007115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.97733, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.918257, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.367213, "excess_performance": 0.196321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053781, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.243068, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.97733, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.54806, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.149183, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.576523, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.367213, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.720518, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50884, "relative_activity": 1.59864, "balance": 0.720518, "dry_up": 1.828042, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116301, "annualized_volatility": 0.537245, "from_high_reference": -0.240921, "from_low_reference": 1.447429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 375.296332, "fair_value_reference": 200.007115, "structural_low": 273.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003178, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.010215, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.264958, "worst_return": -0.068154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.073054, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.081647, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.571482, "worst_return": -0.068196, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.057449, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.08744, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.074818, "worst_return": -0.072082, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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[ 440.97533, 455.237632, 431.24233, 401.904363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 401.839996, "volume": 37088, "typical_volume": 31223.65, "trend": 366.074331, "fair_value": 196.969743, "relative_strength": 23.511298, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.856267, "energy": 26.274334, "activity_lines": [ 421.599331, 445.058905, 431.601472, 404.612621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 379.540009, "volume": 68185, "typical_volume": 31491.85, "trend": 370.749998, "fair_value": 198.424295, "relative_strength": 14.702306, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.585242, "energy": 21.420686, "activity_lines": [ 402.474001, 431.361453, 429.371473, 405.481374 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 395.480011, "volume": 50884, "typical_volume": 31829.55, "trend": 375.296332, "fair_value": 200.007115, "relative_strength": 14.918257, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.571865, "energy": 23.680289, "activity_lines": [ 395.446004, 421.731092, 428.30876, 407.076859 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }