{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0cd99574-785a-4156-9f67-01600c529ee1", "symbol": "UBUV", "name": "UBS Factor MSCI USA Low Volatility UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.388, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.22, "architecture_energy": 58.18, "architecture_maturity": 6.096, "architecture_confidence": 67.486, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.16, "rotation_up": 74.4, "upward_expansion": 88.11, "deceleration": 44.12, "rotation_down": 10.77, "downward_expansion": 10.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.213667, 30.990091, 30.584381, 30.525441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 31.305, "trend_reference": 30.505833, "distance_from_trend": 0.026197, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.516346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097791, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.267592, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.01147, "excess_performance": -0.05317, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026197, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01202, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.097791, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037618, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042676, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019028, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01147, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.519803, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3243, "relative_activity": 1.092066, "balance": 3.519803, "dry_up": 2.723936, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022103, "annualized_volatility": 0.110403, "from_high_reference": -0.028549, "from_low_reference": 0.083031 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.505833, "fair_value_reference": 28.516346, "structural_low": 29.295, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.00452, "positive_rate": 0.62963, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.004299, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.038305, "worst_return": -0.091821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.007612, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.00499, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.090561, "worst_return": -0.090218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04083, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.025158, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.072504, "worst_return": -0.092071, 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30.004546, 30.105524, 30.208226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.08, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1292.2, "trend": 30.253167, "fair_value": 28.329615, "relative_strength": -3.089952, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.443673, "energy": 33.603014, "activity_lines": [ 30.488333, 30.209182, 30.17519, 30.265011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.84, "volume": 2901, "typical_volume": 1407.25, "trend": 30.293833, "fair_value": 28.366314, "relative_strength": -1.108376, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.646476, "energy": 44.591323, "activity_lines": [ 30.665333, 30.351182, 30.223619, 30.302871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.235001, "volume": 21336, "typical_volume": 2473.95, "trend": 30.346333, "fair_value": 28.402051, "relative_strength": 1.073692, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.19028, "energy": 57.091475, "activity_lines": [ 30.912334, 30.552091, 30.311476, 30.363591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.25, "volume": 2648, "typical_volume": 2573.95, "trend": 30.4, "fair_value": 28.438814, "relative_strength": 0.04862, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.557082, "energy": 68.892464, "activity_lines": [ 31.102667, 30.728455, 30.404072, 30.421893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.155001, "volume": 5129, "typical_volume": 2807.45, "trend": 30.455, "fair_value": 28.476731, "relative_strength": -2.244755, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.949853, "energy": 62.076289, "activity_lines": [ 31.149334, 30.855546, 30.488119, 30.470602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.305, "volume": 3243, "typical_volume": 2969.6, "trend": 30.505833, "fair_value": 28.516346, "relative_strength": -4.267592, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.21993, "energy": 58.180057, "activity_lines": [ 31.213667, 30.990091, 30.584381, 30.525441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }