{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ce1c43c-a57a-40d4-9204-fe7236879a11", "symbol": "FLG", "name": "Flagstar Financial, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.631, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.262, "architecture_energy": 17.188, "architecture_maturity": 51.303, "architecture_confidence": 77.039, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.48, "rotation_up": 20.16, "upward_expansion": 53.64, "deceleration": 90.78, "rotation_down": 37.73, "downward_expansion": 21.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.204667, 14.455273, 14.356973, 14.121287 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.95, "trend_reference": 13.834104, "distance_from_trend": 0.008378, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.704907, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.051337, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.078913, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.020951, "excess_performance": -0.146576, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008378, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058025, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.051337, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071205, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074551, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020951, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.907349, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18356274, "relative_activity": 0.796283, "balance": 0.907349, "dry_up": 0.986355, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05651, "annualized_volatility": 0.300542, "from_high_reference": -0.096503, "from_low_reference": 0.322803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.834104, "fair_value_reference": 14.704907, "structural_low": 12.061397, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.054972, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.045857, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.208812, "worst_return": -0.140033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.048041, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.04115, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.225464, "worst_return": -0.165766, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.210444, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.177811, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.005747, "worst_return": -0.703885, "sufficient": false }, { 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14.731287, 14.36293, 14.072262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.85, "volume": 27517642, "typical_volume": 23286573.35, "trend": 13.74682, "fair_value": 15.008838, "relative_strength": -1.318003, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.819767, "energy": 22.610869, "activity_lines": [ 14.572, 14.620729, 14.353241, 14.081283 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.22, "volume": 28478453, "typical_volume": 23421298.2, "trend": 13.803116, "fair_value": 14.851165, "relative_strength": 0.130723, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.207668, "energy": 18.343105, "activity_lines": [ 14.398, 14.566, 14.372794, 14.111811 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.95, "volume": 18356274, "typical_volume": 23052436.05, "trend": 13.834104, "fair_value": 14.704907, "relative_strength": -5.078913, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.262179, "energy": 17.187583, "activity_lines": [ 14.204667, 14.455273, 14.356973, 14.121287 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }