{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ce4eae6-fe67-44e3-b9c9-2549236b0112", "symbol": "CMCM", "name": "Cheetah Mobile Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.118, "architecture_energy": 63.418, "architecture_maturity": 81.257, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 27.76, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 58.26, "rotation_down": 57.66, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.973667, 3.074, 3.693857, 4.284645 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.11, "trend_reference": 5.014333, "distance_from_trend": -0.379778, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.434187, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.298631, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.053517, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.484245, "excess_performance": -0.60987, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.379778, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189755, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.298631, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.528374, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.530535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.30858, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.484245, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.082628, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31013, "relative_activity": 0.326301, "balance": 0.082628, "dry_up": 0.287008, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.180428, "annualized_volatility": 0.588095, "from_high_reference": -0.670551, "from_low_reference": 0.173585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.014333, "fair_value_reference": 4.434187, "structural_low": 2.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.024064, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.02692, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.277487, "worst_return": -0.456757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.209976, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.153216, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.424936, "worst_return": -0.387701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.152772, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.159117, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.819338, "worst_return": -0.415625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060491, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.175799, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093809, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.237937, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.12, "volume": 17451, "typical_volume": 121346.65, "trend": 5.359, "fair_value": 4.425662, "relative_strength": -52.410454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.10181, "energy": 85.462427, "activity_lines": [ 3.122667, 3.442545, 4.196857, 4.73428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.86, "volume": 32323, "typical_volume": 112396.85, "trend": 5.243, "fair_value": 4.427841, "relative_strength": -55.633598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.358473, "energy": 80.898657, "activity_lines": [ 3.019667, 3.268364, 4.001714, 4.573054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.79, "volume": 28327, "typical_volume": 100135.5, "trend": 5.127333, "fair_value": 4.4297, "relative_strength": -56.754171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.983107, "energy": 75.12497, "activity_lines": [ 2.936, 3.124182, 3.822857, 4.414796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.11, "volume": 31013, "typical_volume": 95044.25, "trend": 5.014333, "fair_value": 4.434187, "relative_strength": -53.053517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.117769, "energy": 63.418496, "activity_lines": [ 2.973667, 3.074, 3.693857, 4.284645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }