{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0cea1644-c2ce-4c44-9735-e68f5c698d2b", "symbol": "XGI", "name": "iShares S&P Global Industrials Index ETF (CAD-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.565, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.879, "architecture_energy": 49.774, "architecture_maturity": 53.877, "architecture_confidence": 67.4, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.58, "rotation_up": 54.85, "upward_expansion": 79.82, "deceleration": 65.89, "rotation_down": 23.95, "downward_expansion": 6.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.994002, 71.724333, 70.740566, 69.952186 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 73.32, "trend_reference": 69.100658, "distance_from_trend": 0.061061, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.412809, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.32316, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.903457, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.063688, "excess_performance": -0.056733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061061, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044643, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.32316, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006896, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009035, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002961, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063688, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.979275, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2000, "relative_activity": 0.413223, "balance": 0.979275, "dry_up": 0.511364, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0234, "annualized_volatility": 0.166895, "from_high_reference": -0.004075, "from_low_reference": 0.239872 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.100658, "fair_value_reference": 55.412809, "structural_low": 62.849998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.00417, "positive_rate": 0.690476, "directional_follow_through": 0.690476, "median_excess_return": -0.000829, "regime_survival": 0.738095, "best_return": 0.076472, "worst_return": -0.119892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.038887, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.004702, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.127096, "worst_return": -0.097607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.083443, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.002909, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.154037, "worst_return": -0.037273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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77.574736, "activity_lines": [ 71.801202, 70.798008, 69.711798, 69.11409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 70.160004, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 7970.0, "trend": 68.299905, "fair_value": 54.849662, "relative_strength": -2.61347, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.597931, "energy": 65.741489, "activity_lines": [ 71.395964, 70.798017, 69.835705, 69.250329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.650002, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 7165.0, "trend": 68.585325, "fair_value": 55.03038, "relative_strength": -0.66792, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.894659, "energy": 55.026782, "activity_lines": [ 71.424003, 71.06197, 70.106325, 69.466464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.650002, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 6465.0, "trend": 68.855992, "fair_value": 55.216365, "relative_strength": -0.11395, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.409745, "energy": 39.540633, "activity_lines": [ 71.455336, 71.268866, 70.357184, 69.664185 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.32, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 4840.0, "trend": 69.100658, "fair_value": 55.412809, "relative_strength": -0.903457, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.878789, "energy": 49.774218, "activity_lines": [ 71.994002, 71.724333, 70.740566, 69.952186 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }