{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0ceb2e73-4661-490f-9479-8f733f8bffcf", "symbol": "PPG", "name": "PPG Industries Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.227, "architecture_energy": 19.55, "architecture_maturity": 37.906, "architecture_confidence": 82.733, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.88, "rotation_up": 28.99, "upward_expansion": 56.1, "deceleration": 87.02, "rotation_down": 29.88, "downward_expansion": 19.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 116.010667, 117.614545, 115.404535, 113.9197 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 119.72, "trend_reference": 113.289697, "distance_from_trend": 0.05676, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 116.500029, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027639, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.787415, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042102, "excess_performance": -0.167727, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05676, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055245, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027639, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104529, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017874, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079716, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042102, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.368768, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7788918, "relative_activity": 0.809309, "balance": 1.368768, "dry_up": 0.993688, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069264, "annualized_volatility": 0.368252, "from_high_reference": -0.091781, "from_low_reference": 0.302331 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 113.289697, "fair_value_reference": 116.500029, "structural_low": 95.43233, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.008915, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.036654, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.181341, "worst_return": -0.101725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041331, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001315, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.224313, "worst_return": -0.11743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.057016, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.07186, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152851, "worst_return": -0.110404, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017054, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007413, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091866, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056253, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126636, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.219874, 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119.637333, 118.332727, 114.21865, 113.361099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 116.0, "volume": 8215088, "typical_volume": 9696347.75, "trend": 112.588445, "fair_value": 116.687403, "relative_strength": -0.757091, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.902654, "energy": 27.616585, "activity_lines": [ 118.241333, 118.378545, 114.71631, 113.609027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 110.52, "volume": 15575415, "typical_volume": 9829513.0, "trend": 112.836122, "fair_value": 116.554372, "relative_strength": -6.27119, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.316067, "energy": 15.961176, "activity_lines": [ 115.168667, 117.185091, 114.64446, 113.475579 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 119.72, "volume": 7788918, "typical_volume": 9624156.85, "trend": 113.289697, "fair_value": 116.500029, "relative_strength": -1.787415, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.227337, "energy": 19.549932, "activity_lines": [ 116.010667, 117.614545, 115.404535, 113.9197 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }