{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0cede2c6-87d3-42f3-a055-38e0c70ab8eb", "symbol": "EUEUA", "name": "UBS Core MSCI Europe UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.13, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.019, "architecture_energy": 86.249, "architecture_maturity": 42.312, "architecture_confidence": 78.37, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.1, "rotation_up": 66.6, "upward_expansion": 95.19, "deceleration": 43.63, "rotation_down": 24.42, "downward_expansion": 19.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.857, 20.751, 20.405095, 20.104417 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.035, "trend_reference": 19.791333, "distance_from_trend": 0.062839, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.690641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.260287, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.211496, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.083273, "excess_performance": -0.087618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062839, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038475, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.260287, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053067, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052115, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00758, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083273, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.156793, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1042, "relative_activity": 0.096947, "balance": 1.156793, "dry_up": 0.254254, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013161, "annualized_volatility": 0.143376, "from_high_reference": -0.001424, "from_low_reference": 0.225102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.791333, "fair_value_reference": 16.690641, "structural_low": 17.818001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.005623, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.002911, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.058196, "worst_return": -0.074519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.01817, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.023155, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.078437, "worst_return": -0.068296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.081844, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.026666, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.12529, "worst_return": -0.125253, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002455, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018389, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002331, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019153, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037584, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", 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"activity_lines": [ 20.641667, 20.492055, 20.090367, 19.864389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.74, "volume": 1016, "typical_volume": 11956.6, "trend": 19.661233, "fair_value": 16.601455, "relative_strength": -3.275705, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.751409, "energy": 79.99914, "activity_lines": [ 20.678667, 20.570546, 20.187705, 19.938525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.93, "volume": 812, "typical_volume": 11202.0, "trend": 19.732433, "fair_value": 16.645712, "relative_strength": -2.997259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.998681, "energy": 67.094985, "activity_lines": [ 20.764333, 20.659182, 20.296481, 20.020381 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.035, "volume": 1042, "typical_volume": 10748.1, "trend": 19.791333, "fair_value": 16.690641, "relative_strength": -5.211496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.018545, "energy": 86.248682, "activity_lines": [ 20.857, 20.751, 20.405095, 20.104417 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }