{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "0cfa3701-a25c-4e19-9431-ecce5c5bbcfa",
    "symbol": "VMID",
    "name": "Vanguard FTSE 250 UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 92.779,
    "architecture_energy": 91.619,
    "architecture_maturity": 23.032,
    "architecture_confidence": 72.475,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 1.9,
        "rotation_up": 86.34,
        "upward_expansion": 98.37,
        "deceleration": 39.05,
        "rotation_down": 9.47,
        "downward_expansion": 20.37
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        35.263997
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 38.07,
    "trend_reference": 34.994037,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.0879,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 30.78314,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.236716,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 2.729813,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.080426,
    "excess_performance": 0.029191,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0879,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.024271,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.236716,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.085445,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027298,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.049385,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.080426,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.172668,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 931636,
      "relative_activity": 1.691018,
      "balance": 2.172668,
      "dry_up": 1.058444,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.021876,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.157036,
      "from_high_reference": -0.001574,
      "from_low_reference": 0.214383
    },
    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 30.78314,
      "structural_low": 31.349251,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 27,
        "median_return": 0.005466,
        "positive_rate": 0.592593,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.592593,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003813,
        "regime_survival": 0.814815,
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        "worst_return": -0.115524,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "worst_return": -0.022997,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
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        "worst_return": -0.01638,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.15618,
        "sufficient": false
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "gate": "up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 35.652687,
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        "typical_volume": 656724.25,
        "trend": 34.164838,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 30.216603,
        "relative_strength": -1.839013,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 627941.4,
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        "fair_value": 30.273038,
        "relative_strength": -1.491177,
        "stage": 3,
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        "gate": "up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -2.149086,
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        "direction": 53.470434,
        "energy": 43.265275,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 573786.7,
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        "fair_value": 30.465517,
        "relative_strength": -1.958242,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 584606.95,
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        "fair_value": 30.526432,
        "relative_strength": -0.768541,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.215386,
        "energy": 47.746651,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 35.970001,
        "volume": 310715,
        "typical_volume": 570194.25,
        "trend": 34.721106,
        "fair_value": 30.584378,
        "relative_strength": -0.495865,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.354928,
        "energy": 58.730825,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.680333,
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          34.998995,
          34.843099
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 36.259998,
        "volume": 576724,
        "typical_volume": 559234.65,
        "trend": 34.801521,
        "fair_value": 30.644736,
        "relative_strength": -0.827356,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.329172,
        "energy": 69.096665,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.912666,
          35.67525,
          35.167046,
          34.942383
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 36.605,
        "volume": 513448,
        "typical_volume": 548597.1,
        "trend": 34.888459,
        "fair_value": 30.708937,
        "relative_strength": -0.985076,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.770843,
        "energy": 75.210296,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.194,
          35.871646,
          35.357865,
          35.058736
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 38.07,
        "volume": 931636,
        "typical_volume": 550932.2,
        "trend": 34.994037,
        "fair_value": 30.78314,
        "relative_strength": 2.729813,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 92.778605,
        "energy": 91.619121,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.870666,
          36.307212,
          35.673417,
          35.263997
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}