{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d007a12-30a9-42f3-b7a1-a96a8eef02d4", "symbol": "FMNB", "name": "Farmers National Banc Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.66, "architecture_energy": 82.359, "architecture_maturity": 42.958, "architecture_confidence": 74.603, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 78.54, "upward_expansion": 94.36, "deceleration": 42.54, "rotation_down": 10.36, "downward_expansion": 18.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.403333, 15.041562, 14.607362, 14.234077 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.69, "trend_reference": 13.799714, "distance_from_trend": 0.13698, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.70115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235321, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.437926, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.188053, "excess_performance": 0.000599, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.13698, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04009, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235321, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106369, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004379, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125677, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.188053, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.721505, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1921141, "relative_activity": 1.005343, "balance": 1.721505, "dry_up": 1.124317, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040959, "annualized_volatility": 0.186731, "from_high_reference": -0.029084, "from_low_reference": 0.309701 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.799714, "fair_value_reference": 12.70115, "structural_low": 11.979837, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.011505, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.043049, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.102602, "worst_return": -0.126839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.051987, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.007179, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.135914, "worst_return": -0.149035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.039198, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.099032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034888, "worst_return": -0.193274, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094718, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028483, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086296, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012802, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073228, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.64, "volume": 1775016, "typical_volume": 1993860.05, "trend": 13.551625, "fair_value": 12.630183, "relative_strength": -2.651078, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.454762, "energy": 51.612521, "activity_lines": [ 14.536, 14.414664, 14.133566, 13.855726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.19, "volume": 2509726, "typical_volume": 1959054.4, "trend": 13.613513, "fair_value": 12.651578, "relative_strength": 2.693279, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.613134, "energy": 57.392364, "activity_lines": [ 14.766, 14.584476, 14.268869, 13.961428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.86, "volume": 2388084, "typical_volume": 1968936.25, "trend": 13.710423, "fair_value": 12.675832, "relative_strength": 6.612439, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.33231, "energy": 74.721291, "activity_lines": [ 15.149333, 14.845597, 14.454626, 14.106363 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.69, "volume": 1921141, "typical_volume": 1910930.4, "trend": 13.799714, "fair_value": 12.70115, "relative_strength": 0.437926, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.659768, "energy": 82.359203, "activity_lines": [ 15.403333, 15.041562, 14.607362, 14.234077 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }