{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d0b93f4-c404-4566-9657-03d6cb8674ba", "symbol": "VFEM", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets UCITS ETF USD Distributing", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.508, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.212, "architecture_energy": 29.487, "architecture_maturity": 51.435, "architecture_confidence": 77.721, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.82, "rotation_up": 36.98, "upward_expansion": 60.43, "deceleration": 85.24, "rotation_down": 26.5, "downward_expansion": 19.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.969333, 71.028384, 70.518471, 69.582182 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 72.139999, "trend_reference": 68.527196, "distance_from_trend": 0.052721, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.215667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.260843, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.303315, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.075788, "excess_performance": -0.095104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052721, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036177, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.260843, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018157, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063033, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054128, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075788, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.193943, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5138, "relative_activity": 0.744476, "balance": 1.193943, "dry_up": 1.093603, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0247, "annualized_volatility": 0.152395, "from_high_reference": -0.008521, "from_low_reference": 0.222658 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.527196, "fair_value_reference": 57.215667, "structural_low": 62.099998, "invalidation": "A 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 72.010002, "volume": 7203, "typical_volume": 7579.85, "trend": 67.682188, "fair_value": 56.627018, "relative_strength": -4.972229, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.67908, "energy": 71.217887, "activity_lines": [ 71.633457, 71.093602, 69.823632, 68.909969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 69.489998, "volume": 7508, "typical_volume": 7608.6, "trend": 67.892813, "fair_value": 56.772369, "relative_strength": -6.858803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.691277, "energy": 40.9525, "activity_lines": [ 70.968668, 70.87239, 69.914014, 69.026601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.43, "volume": 2684, "typical_volume": 6948.4, "trend": 68.134771, "fair_value": 56.909447, "relative_strength": -5.358896, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.7367, "energy": 32.604481, "activity_lines": [ 70.696001, 70.843576, 70.087036, 69.190291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.389999, "volume": 14860, "typical_volume": 7120.7, "trend": 68.320917, "fair_value": 57.053508, "relative_strength": -5.955773, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.872065, "energy": 23.60064, "activity_lines": [ 70.538, 70.784439, 70.231317, 69.33579 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.139999, "volume": 5138, "typical_volume": 6901.5, "trend": 68.527196, "fair_value": 57.215667, "relative_strength": -6.303315, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.211889, "energy": 29.48688, "activity_lines": [ 70.969333, 71.028384, 70.518471, 69.582182 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }