{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d0e6917-978b-4005-9275-1bd038930225", "symbol": "USWE", "name": "Uswe Sports AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -86.558, "architecture_energy": 92.521, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.128, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.29, "rotation_up": 8.12, "upward_expansion": 21.27, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 82.08, "downward_expansion": 94.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.906667, 9.748182, 10.612143, 10.78914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.0, "trend_reference": 11.103333, "distance_from_trend": -0.279496, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.975641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.331977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.534623, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.285714, "excess_performance": -0.347209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.279496, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105892, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.331977, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283615, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.455346, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.264558, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.368905, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60159, "relative_activity": 2.503345, "balance": 0.368905, "dry_up": 2.999611, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113462, "annualized_volatility": 0.523551, "from_high_reference": -0.562842, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.103333, "fair_value_reference": 11.975641, "structural_low": 7.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.016129, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.017091, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.407407, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.050223, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.086861, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.38961, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02364, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.073494, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.831169, "worst_return": -0.52862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.311688, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080808, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.291667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097403, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169697, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.749954, "energy": 47.256491, "activity_lines": [ 11.02, 11.365455, 11.439762, 11.483333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.0, "volume": 8296, "typical_volume": 14697.75, "trend": 11.781667, "fair_value": 12.138462, "relative_strength": -26.1305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.094094, "energy": 54.118525, "activity_lines": [ 10.96, 11.258182, 11.418571, 11.424516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.4, "volume": 49871, "typical_volume": 16466.15, "trend": 11.665, "fair_value": 12.108974, "relative_strength": -28.892795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.302697, "energy": 62.757178, "activity_lines": [ 10.766667, 11.061818, 11.33881, 11.335376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.4, "volume": 45058, "typical_volume": 17571.75, "trend": 11.535, "fair_value": 12.078205, "relative_strength": -29.432977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.468841, "energy": 60.39748, "activity_lines": [ 10.633333, 10.890909, 11.258571, 11.253763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.65, "volume": 133252, "typical_volume": 21545.45, "trend": 11.316667, "fair_value": 12.022115, "relative_strength": -47.919171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.842312, "energy": 87.366644, "activity_lines": [ 9.61, 10.249091, 10.913095, 11.003118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.0, "volume": 60159, "typical_volume": 24031.45, "trend": 11.103333, "fair_value": 11.975641, "relative_strength": -45.534623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.558074, "energy": 92.521464, "activity_lines": [ 8.906667, 9.748182, 10.612143, 10.78914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }