{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d0f30fb-fa74-457c-977d-d48e64c41886", "symbol": "300071", "name": "FS Development Investment Holdings", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.419, "architecture_energy": 18.502, "architecture_maturity": 77.658, "architecture_confidence": 78.267, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.37, "rotation_up": 28.37, "upward_expansion": 20.26, "deceleration": 43.83, "rotation_down": 29.19, "downward_expansion": 56.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.318, 4.182727, 4.268143, 4.52972 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.49, "trend_reference": 5.064667, "distance_from_trend": -0.113466, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.341923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034104, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.295735, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.378976, "excess_performance": -0.386376, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113466, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108752, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034104, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139261, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162957, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06554, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.378976, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.597536, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 629956690, "relative_activity": 2.23325, "balance": 0.597536, "dry_up": 2.363186, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14391, "annualized_volatility": 0.68636, "from_high_reference": -0.544162, "from_low_reference": 0.320588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.064667, "fair_value_reference": 4.341923, "structural_low": 3.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.011468, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.006029, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.679814, "worst_return": -0.2263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.079495, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.017413, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.830846, "worst_return": -0.244361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01184, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04707, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.726368, "worst_return": -0.347403, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 32.249621, "activity_lines": [ 4.06, 4.013091, 4.260476, 4.611892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.54, "volume": 672097963, "typical_volume": 259355451.25, "trend": 5.132667, "fair_value": 4.339295, "relative_strength": -11.564938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.259535, "energy": 21.314887, "activity_lines": [ 4.234, 4.103091, 4.265095, 4.571183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.49, "volume": 629956690, "typical_volume": 282080696.05, "trend": 5.064667, "fair_value": 4.341923, "relative_strength": -16.295735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.419148, "energy": 18.502473, "activity_lines": [ 4.318, 4.182727, 4.268143, 4.52972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }