{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d0fdd6c-d487-4bb7-815e-534a348116ea", "symbol": "KAV", "name": "Katalysen Ventures AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.405, "architecture_energy": 22.853, "architecture_maturity": 78.839, "architecture_confidence": 82.981, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.01, "rotation_up": 26.69, "upward_expansion": 20.17, "deceleration": 42.15, "rotation_down": 34.0, "downward_expansion": 56.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.070667, 5.033818, 5.156238, 5.300989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.82, "trend_reference": 5.509333, "distance_from_trend": -0.125121, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.522308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.541926, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.401959, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.154386, "excess_performance": -0.21588, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125121, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071982, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.541926, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024418, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26402, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032132, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.154386, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.282241, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3473, "relative_activity": 0.193634, "balance": 0.282241, "dry_up": 0.384815, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106607, "annualized_volatility": 0.441113, "from_high_reference": -0.432941, "from_low_reference": 0.090498 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.509333, "fair_value_reference": 10.522308, "structural_low": 4.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.017241, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.047446, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.528926, "worst_return": -0.289474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.119658, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.077372, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.87, "worst_return": -0.432039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.043901, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.182442, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.79, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.937514, "energy": 38.368133, "activity_lines": [ 4.928, 4.966182, 5.21519, 5.37471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.65, "volume": 11772, "typical_volume": 18828.6, "trend": 5.583667, "fair_value": 10.677308, "relative_strength": -12.047749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.827361, "energy": 13.688273, "activity_lines": [ 5.181333, 5.073273, 5.238714, 5.379097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.1, "volume": 4593, "typical_volume": 18097.7, "trend": 5.547, "fair_value": 10.600385, "relative_strength": -21.208843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.754122, "energy": 16.311612, "activity_lines": [ 5.176, 5.074909, 5.209143, 5.347892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.82, "volume": 3473, "typical_volume": 17935.9, "trend": 5.509333, "fair_value": 10.522308, "relative_strength": -26.401959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.405132, "energy": 22.852858, "activity_lines": [ 5.070667, 5.033818, 5.156238, 5.300989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }