{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d1b728c-4529-46b7-b40b-45524826d372", "symbol": "SHI", "name": "SIG plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.024, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.622, "architecture_energy": 11.417, "architecture_maturity": 13.925, "architecture_confidence": 57.933, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.84, "rotation_up": 35.61, "upward_expansion": 33.88, "deceleration": 40.32, "rotation_down": 24.67, "downward_expansion": 44.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.085727, 0.083915, 0.083333, 0.084521 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.087, "trend_reference": 0.087437, "distance_from_trend": -0.004994, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.185977, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.5322, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.129227, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.09751, "excess_performance": -0.148746, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004994, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041755, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.5322, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082389, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.18681, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09751, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.870561, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12276371, "relative_activity": 4.366399, "balance": 0.870561, "dry_up": 1.712381, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108391, "annualized_volatility": 0.360549, "from_high_reference": -0.297254, "from_low_reference": 0.294643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.087437, "fair_value_reference": 0.185977, "structural_low": 0.0672, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.037344, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.043068, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.199426, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.1182, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.155888, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.377816, "worst_return": -0.380795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.212202, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.244347, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162281, "worst_return": -0.378808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.429061, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.486631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.082278, "worst_return": -0.495808, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-02-17", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013095, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-06-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125641, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118326, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.269759, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.233696, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133234, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.519192, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.239735, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122523, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103743, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.193382, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011364, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.3245, "volume": 4798203, "typical_volume": 6970855.9, "trend": 0.379233, "fair_value": 0.387501, "relative_strength": -4.324309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.108282, "energy": 23.365741, "activity_lines": [ 0.081213, 0.081591, 0.082364, 0.084835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0849, "volume": 1325306, "typical_volume": 3130469.0, "trend": 0.088267, "fair_value": 0.188797, "relative_strength": -15.241252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.400435, "energy": 16.015645, "activity_lines": [ 0.0825, 0.082082, 0.082509, 0.084588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.088, "volume": 1510543, "typical_volume": 2849682.3, "trend": 0.08776, "fair_value": 0.187528, "relative_strength": -11.879281, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.897626, "energy": 6.546799, "activity_lines": [ 0.08442, 0.083098, 0.082986, 0.08457 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.087, "volume": 12276371, "typical_volume": 2811554.85, "trend": 0.087437, "fair_value": 0.185977, "relative_strength": -12.129227, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.622144, "energy": 11.416724, "activity_lines": [ 0.085727, 0.083915, 0.083333, 0.084521 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }