{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d1e2c4a-6792-4ff0-a901-d7aa87e77a56", "symbol": "600740", "name": "Shanxi Coking Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.807, "architecture_energy": 32.791, "architecture_maturity": 80.512, "architecture_confidence": 82.504, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.52, "rotation_up": 27.24, "upward_expansion": 17.43, "deceleration": 46.85, "rotation_down": 33.34, "downward_expansion": 65.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.515333, 3.474549, 3.63048, 3.832329 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.54, "trend_reference": 4.048508, "distance_from_trend": -0.125604, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.191453, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.155424, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.838073, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.237069, "excess_performance": -0.193865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125604, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041086, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.155424, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079215, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118381, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012398, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.237069, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.218311, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 167738004, "relative_activity": 0.928458, "balance": 1.218311, "dry_up": 0.918547, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079592, "annualized_volatility": 0.410217, "from_high_reference": -0.351648, "from_low_reference": 0.10625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.048508, "fair_value_reference": 4.191453, "structural_low": 3.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.005602, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": -0.015509, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.141306, "worst_return": -0.119674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.017598, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.023615, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.21887, "worst_return": -0.174286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007318, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074222, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.058172, "worst_return": -0.255821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3.492787, 3.743507, 3.934578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.45, "volume": 172531628, "typical_volume": 223309163.8, "trend": 4.062841, "fair_value": 4.209676, "relative_strength": -11.953884, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.941497, "energy": 61.165297, "activity_lines": [ 3.39, 3.465905, 3.691054, 3.89418 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.62, "volume": 142466429, "typical_volume": 194516302.75, "trend": 4.055841, "fair_value": 4.200821, "relative_strength": -7.668301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.600356, "energy": 40.630272, "activity_lines": [ 3.479333, 3.47673, 3.661267, 3.865609 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.54, "volume": 167738004, "typical_volume": 180662909.7, "trend": 4.048508, "fair_value": 4.191453, "relative_strength": -11.838073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.806803, "energy": 32.790911, "activity_lines": [ 3.515333, 3.474549, 3.63048, 3.832329 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }