{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d219158-5982-4454-97b8-abc4485b2e08", "symbol": "600581", "name": "XinJiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.076, "architecture_energy": 47.182, "architecture_maturity": 95.827, "architecture_confidence": 88.96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.27, "rotation_up": 26.94, "upward_expansion": 7.45, "deceleration": 58.89, "rotation_down": 46.52, "downward_expansion": 78.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.296667, 2.307091, 2.432476, 2.543419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.34, "trend_reference": 2.720667, "distance_from_trend": -0.139917, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.312949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.293681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.961925, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.195876, "excess_performance": -0.152672, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139917, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140027, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.293681, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076193, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.289619, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00942, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195876, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.625733, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37815833, "relative_activity": 0.417097, "balance": 0.625733, "dry_up": 0.444358, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077252, "annualized_volatility": 0.409398, "from_high_reference": -0.578378, "from_low_reference": 0.147059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.720667, "fair_value_reference": 3.312949, "structural_low": 2.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.021072, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.016744, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.35743, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.116279, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.073907, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.465649, "worst_return": -0.22807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.144279, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.137171, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.175573, "worst_return": -0.335347, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.589852, "energy": 66.683026, "activity_lines": [ 2.25, 2.325636, 2.478619, 2.599785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.33, "volume": 35629524, "typical_volume": 101709340.75, "trend": 2.754, "fair_value": 3.323718, "relative_strength": -28.174596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.308416, "energy": 52.941569, "activity_lines": [ 2.279333, 2.312545, 2.453524, 2.570129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.34, "volume": 37815833, "typical_volume": 90664401.7, "trend": 2.720667, "fair_value": 3.312949, "relative_strength": -28.961925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.075561, "energy": 47.181825, "activity_lines": [ 2.296667, 2.307091, 2.432476, 2.543419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }