{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d2b029e-c63f-46f8-942d-a11cc8742773", "symbol": "8084", "name": "Chip Hope Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -2.84, "architecture_energy": 5.755, "architecture_maturity": 27.433, "architecture_confidence": 50.741, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 73.67, "rotation_up": 17.57, "upward_expansion": 14.82, "deceleration": 65.01, "rotation_down": 36.95, "downward_expansion": 59.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.616667, 46.596364, 46.465953, 46.92957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 52.0, "trend_reference": 48.656667, "distance_from_trend": 0.068713, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 63.633333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.182818, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.659849, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.031657, "excess_performance": -0.473029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068713, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056218, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.182818, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170282, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246598, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118144, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031657, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.570971, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3613010, "relative_activity": 4.241136, "balance": 1.570971, "dry_up": 1.923358, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100592, "annualized_volatility": 0.458967, "from_high_reference": -0.236417, "from_low_reference": 0.343669 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.656667, "fair_value_reference": 63.633333, "structural_low": 40.099998, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.045854, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.053305, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.242638, "worst_return": -0.209611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014782, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016629, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.360465, "worst_return": -0.309783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.039514, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.2609, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.877828, "worst_return": -0.347882, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064371, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.34063, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03423, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006977, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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-32.071163, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.948594, "energy": 15.902637, "activity_lines": [ 47.273334, 47.296365, 46.691191, 48.018173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.0, "volume": 1298000, "typical_volume": 728465.5, "trend": 50.298334, "fair_value": 64.43109, "relative_strength": -36.125732, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.499582, "energy": 27.051112, "activity_lines": [ 45.753334, 46.617274, 46.314286, 47.511829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.549999, "volume": 1118000, "typical_volume": 704799.75, "trend": 49.703334, "fair_value": 64.146154, "relative_strength": -34.092533, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.984252, "energy": 39.276068, "activity_lines": [ 44.696667, 46.043637, 46.047858, 47.076452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.400002, "volume": 525001, "typical_volume": 686296.35, "trend": 48.973334, "fair_value": 63.862821, "relative_strength": -33.98752, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.377381, "energy": 43.029006, "activity_lines": [ 44.240001, 45.601819, 45.89262, 46.734302 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 52.0, "volume": 3613010, "typical_volume": 851896.85, "trend": 48.656667, "fair_value": 63.633333, "relative_strength": -24.659849, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.839608, "energy": 5.754694, "activity_lines": [ 46.616667, 46.596364, 46.465953, 46.92957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }