{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d2cd225-dd87-4f69-bad7-1e8f55864f3b", "symbol": "RAYG-M", "name": "Ray Tlv Group Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.909, "architecture_energy": 49.224, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.696, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.62, "rotation_up": 18.03, "upward_expansion": 6.14, "deceleration": 48.7, "rotation_down": 66.31, "downward_expansion": 84.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.580733, 0.609618, 0.6593, 0.714017 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.539, "trend_reference": 0.776767, "distance_from_trend": -0.306098, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.786673, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.314836, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.741899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.382589, "excess_performance": -0.411489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.306098, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057779, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.314836, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148694, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.357419, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055744, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.382589, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.390481, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 274891, "relative_activity": 4.671732, "balance": 0.390481, "dry_up": 3.500876, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.226631, "annualized_volatility": 0.76493, "from_high_reference": -0.530896, "from_low_reference": 0.247685 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.776767, "fair_value_reference": 0.786673, "structural_low": 0.432, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.065261, "positive_rate": 0.304348, "directional_follow_through": 0.673913, "median_excess_return": -0.079674, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.412698, "worst_return": -0.316304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.201571, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.203688, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.261494, "worst_return": -0.540217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.39549, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.416601, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.179756, "worst_return": -0.608295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 0.802417, "relative_strength": -33.750002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.892826, "energy": 47.031965, "activity_lines": [ 0.615733, 0.640836, 0.690976, 0.742542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.605, "volume": 275120, "typical_volume": 46572.6, "trend": 0.788133, "fair_value": 0.794372, "relative_strength": -28.603188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.858872, "energy": 43.290056, "activity_lines": [ 0.607333, 0.630309, 0.677757, 0.73009 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.539, "volume": 274891, "typical_volume": 58841.35, "trend": 0.776767, "fair_value": 0.786673, "relative_strength": -35.741899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.908909, "energy": 49.223702, "activity_lines": [ 0.580733, 0.609618, 0.6593, 0.714017 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }