{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "0d311917-d18e-4fed-9042-741e02cedb63",
    "symbol": "ALHC",
    "name": "Alignment Healthcare LLC",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -70.11,
    "architecture_energy": 47.752,
    "architecture_maturity": 28.323,
    "architecture_confidence": 66.399,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 42.78,
        "rotation_up": 11.11,
        "upward_expansion": 6.22,
        "deceleration": 50.23,
        "rotation_down": 69.78,
        "downward_expansion": 74.88
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        16.704667,
        18.694182,
        18.752905,
        18.848258
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 14.37,
    "trend_reference": 19.341333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.257032,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 12.996571,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.105676,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -32.427939,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.33931,
    "excess_performance": -0.526764,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.257032,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.009008,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.105676,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.392311,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.324279,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.181758,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.33931,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.890006,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 40521046,
      "relative_activity": 1.544046,
      "balance": 0.890006,
      "dry_up": 1.031305,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.20949,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.730683,
      "from_high_reference": -0.427946,
      "from_low_reference": 0.101149
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 19.341333,
      "fair_value_reference": 12.996571,
      "structural_low": 13.05,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.035468,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.033752,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.333333,
        "worst_return": -0.258718,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.006757,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005511,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.240634,
        "worst_return": -0.029218,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.37407,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.598894,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.285303,
        "worst_return": -0.462838,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.119443,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.239348,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.652738,
        "worst_return": -0.413851,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.01002,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.122307,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.133382,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.261372,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.063052,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.011635,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.150299,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.053708,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.097815,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.233454,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.27804,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.508783,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.032323,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 12.203109,
        "relative_strength": -24.371059,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "relative_strength": -4.944046,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 31.135853,
        "energy": 30.879132,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 22961075.75,
        "trend": 19.690667,
        "fair_value": 12.619263,
        "relative_strength": 14.354148,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 35.773427,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 24282722.25,
        "trend": 19.706333,
        "fair_value": 12.712083,
        "relative_strength": -6.608105,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 21.733422,
        "energy": 41.489931,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 15077732,
        "typical_volume": 24307900.7,
        "trend": 19.712333,
        "fair_value": 12.804968,
        "relative_strength": 0.737208,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 29.509629,
        "energy": 45.524666,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.464,
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          19.561524,
          19.516086
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 19.43,
        "volume": 17686441,
        "typical_volume": 23955895.65,
        "trend": 19.734,
        "fair_value": 12.89266,
        "relative_strength": -3.917634,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 20.205476,
        "energy": 17.208158,
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          20.655333,
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          19.597762,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 14.85,
        "volume": 34974595,
        "typical_volume": 25171300.0,
        "trend": 19.555,
        "fair_value": 12.946506,
        "relative_strength": -26.876031,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -28.264022,
        "energy": 23.533944,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.482,
          19.608727,
          19.193095,
          19.182774
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 14.37,
        "volume": 40521046,
        "typical_volume": 26243414.0,
        "trend": 19.341333,
        "fair_value": 12.996571,
        "relative_strength": -32.427939,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -70.110179,
        "energy": 47.751514,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.704667,
          18.694182,
          18.752905,
          18.848258
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}