{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d36a6f2-ed5e-4bb6-a829-10c6f6c3fffc", "symbol": "JMIAN", "name": "Jumia Technologies AG", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.054, "architecture_energy": 82.929, "architecture_maturity": 62.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.005, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.47, "rotation_up": 18.38, "upward_expansion": 18.96, "deceleration": 39.37, "rotation_down": 71.16, "downward_expansion": 94.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 104.681999, 108.394544, 114.392618, 121.10172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 102.25, "trend_reference": 137.192667, "distance_from_trend": -0.254698, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 109.777436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.06857, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.83296, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.485198, "excess_performance": -0.430531, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.254698, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207797, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.06857, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.345166, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.39833, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1892, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.485198, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.56093, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25, "relative_activity": 0.069454, "balance": 0.56093, "dry_up": 1.118211, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072816, "annualized_volatility": 0.599562, "from_high_reference": -0.609733, "from_low_reference": 0.017919 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 137.192667, "fair_value_reference": 109.777436, "structural_low": 100.449997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.024793, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.003331, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.463415, "worst_return": -0.25641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002406, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017712, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.073171, "worst_return": -0.474359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.405667, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.392354, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 3.76122, "worst_return": -0.568421, "sufficient": false }, { 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121.99819, 134.943806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 118.0, "volume": 113, "typical_volume": 382.65, "trend": 154.577333, "fair_value": 108.977692, "relative_strength": -30.179577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.2499, "energy": 57.894342, "activity_lines": [ 114.618667, 116.807818, 121.110762, 132.353849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 112.089996, "volume": 142, "typical_volume": 378.35, "trend": 150.313666, "fair_value": 109.224103, "relative_strength": -33.855456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.26602, "energy": 59.5967, "activity_lines": [ 113.439332, 115.458908, 119.884285, 129.612731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 105.0, "volume": 776, "typical_volume": 402.45, "trend": 146.729333, "fair_value": 109.454872, "relative_strength": -37.818722, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.326561, "energy": 65.771413, "activity_lines": [ 110.490666, 113.232908, 118.120238, 126.689268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 100.449997, "volume": 667, "typical_volume": 434.25, "trend": 142.577666, "fair_value": 109.610385, "relative_strength": -41.008389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.032378, "energy": 66.220313, "activity_lines": [ 106.967998, 110.454181, 116.067047, 123.703505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.25, "volume": 25, "typical_volume": 359.95, "trend": 137.192667, "fair_value": 109.777436, "relative_strength": -39.83296, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.0541, "energy": 82.929345, "activity_lines": [ 104.681999, 108.394544, 114.392618, 121.10172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }