{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d3b47c9-1259-41fa-86d4-9b2b8fb82717", "symbol": "OCTW", "name": "ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY BUFFER20 OCT ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.397, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.771, "architecture_energy": 85.666, "architecture_maturity": 42.568, "architecture_confidence": 72.923, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 67.05, "upward_expansion": 93.71, "deceleration": 45.23, "rotation_down": 25.63, "downward_expansion": 18.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.251367, 41.09284, 40.816797, 40.417043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 41.5301, "trend_reference": 39.955433, "distance_from_trend": 0.039411, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.993534, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.153821, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.884285, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.056781, "excess_performance": -0.068844, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039411, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018554, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.153821, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001733, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058843, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002856, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056781, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.241262, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58786, "relative_activity": 0.139919, "balance": 0.241262, "dry_up": 0.235499, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006805, "annualized_volatility": 0.052858, "from_high_reference": -0.000479, "from_low_reference": 0.114304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.955433, "fair_value_reference": 35.993534, "structural_low": 37.89, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.007539, "positive_rate": 0.772727, "directional_follow_through": 0.772727, "median_excess_return": -0.010415, "regime_survival": 0.931818, "best_return": 0.036493, "worst_return": -0.054254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.023001, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.022598, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.059379, "worst_return": -0.018056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04944, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.046772, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.079953, "worst_return": 0.010866, "sufficient": 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70.44995, "energy": 85.464803, "activity_lines": [ 40.972667, 40.863731, 40.495196, 40.137666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.99, "volume": 38814, "typical_volume": 425476.85, "trend": 39.8058, "fair_value": 35.855399, "relative_strength": -3.162217, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.006092, "energy": 83.579472, "activity_lines": [ 40.997333, 40.902095, 40.588136, 40.218065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.24, "volume": 103602, "typical_volume": 424697.15, "trend": 39.880133, "fair_value": 35.923572, "relative_strength": -3.455444, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.612105, "energy": 85.664929, "activity_lines": [ 41.097333, 40.97664, 40.694843, 40.310594 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.5301, "volume": 58786, "typical_volume": 420143.8, "trend": 39.955433, "fair_value": 35.993534, "relative_strength": -5.884285, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.770608, "energy": 85.666176, "activity_lines": [ 41.251367, 41.09284, 40.816797, 40.417043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }