{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d48467c-03b1-4130-821b-b0b39675aa84", "symbol": "AXP", "name": "American Express Company", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 76.393, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.173, "architecture_energy": 32.025, "architecture_maturity": 60.669, "architecture_confidence": 63.958, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.96, "rotation_up": 37.64, "upward_expansion": 66.73, "deceleration": 85.37, "rotation_down": 25.87, "downward_expansion": 16.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 294.666671, 296.484646, 288.169708, 283.208737 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 294.100006, "trend_reference": 281.425689, "distance_from_trend": 0.045036, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 241.972749, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.215426, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.269267, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.029499, "excess_performance": -0.203746, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045036, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025433, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.215426, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05825, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02784, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029499, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.711538, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.711538, "dry_up": 3.717949, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039517, "annualized_volatility": 0.290613, "from_high_reference": -0.104708, "from_low_reference": 0.165499 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 281.425689, "fair_value_reference": 241.972749, "structural_low": 252.524449, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.05345, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.010862, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.106464, "worst_return": -0.102078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02563, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.030934, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.307873, "worst_return": -0.097978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.11709, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00524, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.386587, "worst_return": -0.098927, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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269.742069, 269.052821, 276.516648 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 279.102875, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.3, "trend": 286.341831, "fair_value": 234.255701, "relative_strength": -19.44399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.031812, "energy": 12.006928, "activity_lines": [ 272.437622, 271.463388, 269.633206, 275.990937 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 294.05481, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 3.4, "trend": 286.039982, "fair_value": 235.189824, "relative_strength": -18.223695, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 18.240266, "energy": 25.508239, "activity_lines": [ 280.073082, 275.54228, 271.75916, 276.488548 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 299.836212, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.35, "trend": 285.546575, "fair_value": 236.130177, "relative_strength": -14.619972, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.385531, "energy": 63.917087, "activity_lines": [ 287.967702, 280.196793, 274.414219, 277.378627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 308.700012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.45, "trend": 285.217778, "fair_value": 237.148461, "relative_strength": -13.761655, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.236532, "energy": 78.150354, "activity_lines": [ 296.710362, 286.211339, 277.928702, 278.872398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 305.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.35, "trend": 284.651358, "fair_value": 238.151073, "relative_strength": -13.305731, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.790025, "energy": 78.838896, "activity_lines": [ 301.768079, 290.802246, 280.975125, 280.14867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 312.0, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 4.1, "trend": 284.449123, "fair_value": 239.197009, "relative_strength": -9.353176, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.994954, "energy": 83.416601, "activity_lines": [ 306.655151, 296.079032, 284.611269, 281.913099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 283.899994, "volume": 52, "typical_volume": 6.7, "trend": 283.207529, "fair_value": 240.083242, "relative_strength": -18.29499, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.963876, "energy": 62.409583, "activity_lines": [ 299.982414, 295.418428, 285.344939, 281.877671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 292.200012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6.0, "trend": 282.460964, "fair_value": 241.017728, "relative_strength": -15.602444, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.299185, "energy": 36.920458, "activity_lines": [ 296.753337, 295.996649, 286.737709, 282.457831 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 294.100006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.85, "trend": 281.425689, "fair_value": 241.972749, "relative_strength": -17.269267, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.172865, "energy": 32.025214, "activity_lines": [ 294.666671, 296.484646, 288.169708, 283.208737 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }