{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d50efd3-c1dc-4e4d-8765-fb43b71326cc", "symbol": "NTI", "name": "Norsk Titanium AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.254, "architecture_energy": 22.182, "architecture_maturity": 22.237, "architecture_confidence": 66.506, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.02, "rotation_up": 42.99, "upward_expansion": 39.01, "deceleration": 40.04, "rotation_down": 30.04, "downward_expansion": 18.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.074, 1.052291, 1.048714, 1.031056 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.18, "trend_reference": 1.046133, "distance_from_trend": 0.127963, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.71187, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310695, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.413102, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.147399, "excess_performance": -0.272393, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.127963, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012989, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310695, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137383, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.230528, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.147399, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.65246, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8201674, "relative_activity": 1.262055, "balance": 4.65246, "dry_up": 1.108592, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099153, "annualized_volatility": 0.739015, "from_high_reference": -0.355191, "from_low_reference": 0.571238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.046133, "fair_value_reference": 1.71187, "structural_low": 0.751, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.116667, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.127626, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.449848, "worst_return": -0.437762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.23741, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.312233, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.36, "worst_return": -0.513415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.252369, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.368255, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.668571, "worst_return": -0.510791, "sufficient": true 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04902, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067538, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.156364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.264957, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.140173, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.740011, "energy": 25.843817, "activity_lines": [ 1.018867, 1.056945, 1.021567, 1.030037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.01, "volume": 4671513, "typical_volume": 7154136.05, "trend": 1.0594, "fair_value": 1.745525, "relative_strength": -19.684106, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.321099, "energy": 24.934529, "activity_lines": [ 1.0096, 1.045509, 1.024824, 1.026695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.01, "volume": 6500678, "typical_volume": 6405835.45, "trend": 1.0538, "fair_value": 1.732953, "relative_strength": -20.178343, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.028373, "energy": 18.29234, "activity_lines": [ 1.008333, 1.034545, 1.027129, 1.023508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.04, "volume": 9443607, "typical_volume": 6600537.5, "trend": 1.0492, "fair_value": 1.721988, "relative_strength": -16.826046, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.08341, "energy": 15.298632, "activity_lines": [ 1.0192, 1.030309, 1.03169, 1.022617 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.18, "volume": 8201674, "typical_volume": 6498666.0, "trend": 1.046133, "fair_value": 1.71187, "relative_strength": -4.413102, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.254195, "energy": 22.181974, "activity_lines": [ 1.074, 1.052291, 1.048714, 1.031056 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }