{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d516069-3489-4652-a575-32828ed984e9", "symbol": "IVR", "name": "Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.315, "architecture_energy": 56.311, "architecture_maturity": 5.602, "architecture_confidence": 89.772, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.03, "rotation_up": 13.79, "upward_expansion": 14.47, "deceleration": 35.2, "rotation_down": 63.8, "downward_expansion": 85.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.545058, 7.647704, 7.726647, 7.751759 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.48, "trend_reference": 7.83269, "distance_from_trend": -0.045028, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.439891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16151, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.941564, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.086641, "excess_performance": -0.212266, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045028, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017827, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16151, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099915, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099416, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109868, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086641, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.738082, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13227661, "relative_activity": 1.120654, "balance": 0.738082, "dry_up": 1.229301, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039833, "annualized_volatility": 0.179947, "from_high_reference": -0.140494, "from_low_reference": 0.233238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.83269, "fair_value_reference": 6.439891, "structural_low": 7.159315, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.020304, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.318182, "median_excess_return": -0.006897, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.256058, "worst_return": -0.22931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.109554, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.015417, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.473863, "worst_return": -0.297281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016406, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.114338, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.323636, "worst_return": -0.255368, "sufficient": true }, { 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balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.010357, "energy": 34.82199, "activity_lines": [ 7.724741, 7.756028, 7.786803, 7.80403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.41, "volume": 14523804, "typical_volume": 11763719.2, "trend": 7.844132, "fair_value": 6.43326, "relative_strength": -7.729557, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.484939, "energy": 50.468364, "activity_lines": [ 7.610423, 7.693455, 7.752915, 7.775251 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.48, "volume": 13227661, "typical_volume": 11803518.25, "trend": 7.83269, "fair_value": 6.439891, "relative_strength": -9.941564, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.315389, "energy": 56.310714, "activity_lines": [ 7.545058, 7.647704, 7.726647, 7.751759 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }