{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d55af1c-d48f-440d-960d-67b0a788c5d4", "symbol": "SOUC", "name": "Southern Energy Corp.", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.986, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.129, "architecture_energy": 18.24, "architecture_maturity": 37.116, "architecture_confidence": 57.401, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.39, "rotation_up": 23.46, "upward_expansion": 1.55, "deceleration": 49.92, "rotation_down": 29.62, "downward_expansion": 50.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0375, 0.0375, 0.037726, 0.038523 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0375, "trend_reference": 0.039567, "distance_from_trend": -0.052233, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.07535, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.502322, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.340855, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.0625, "excess_performance": -0.113735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052233, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024651, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.502322, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088074, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083409, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055693, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4708, "relative_activity": 0.018523, "balance": null, "dry_up": 0.675009, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095897, "annualized_volatility": 0.53412, "from_high_reference": -0.375, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.039567, "fair_value_reference": 0.07535, "structural_low": 0.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.058277, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.056988, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.407692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.105718, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.128006, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.216216, "worst_return": -0.492308, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.5, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.526781, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.081081, "worst_return": -0.553846, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"fair_value": 0.080254, "relative_strength": -4.855198, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.186017, "energy": 18.688338, "activity_lines": [ 0.0375, 0.0375, 0.038424, 0.039217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0375, "volume": 57494, "typical_volume": 433893.2, "trend": 0.040317, "fair_value": 0.079084, "relative_strength": -5.824062, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.635393, "energy": 18.126494, "activity_lines": [ 0.0375, 0.0375, 0.038226, 0.039019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0375, "volume": 622473, "typical_volume": 429876.0, "trend": 0.040067, "fair_value": 0.077914, "relative_strength": -7.059924, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.413434, "energy": 18.0899, "activity_lines": [ 0.0375, 0.0375, 0.038024, 0.038838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0375, "volume": 1601, "typical_volume": 311499.9, "trend": 0.039817, "fair_value": 0.076632, "relative_strength": -8.125198, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.221374, "energy": 18.132445, "activity_lines": [ 0.0375, 0.0375, 0.037845, 0.038672 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0375, "volume": 4708, "typical_volume": 254172.85, "trend": 0.039567, "fair_value": 0.07535, "relative_strength": -8.340855, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.129096, "energy": 18.24014, "activity_lines": [ 0.0375, 0.0375, 0.037726, 0.038523 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }