{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d579370-d3dc-477a-9cca-ae422aa11481", "symbol": "UPAR", "name": "TIDAL ETF TRUST UPAR ULTRA RISK PARITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 86.105, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.445, "architecture_energy": 57.211, "architecture_maturity": 9.264, "architecture_confidence": 84.477, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.69, "rotation_up": 13.29, "upward_expansion": 11.96, "deceleration": 39.36, "rotation_down": 65.63, "downward_expansion": 87.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.85476, 15.952836, 16.133081, 16.2419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.11, "trend_reference": 16.368621, "distance_from_trend": -0.0158, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.802383, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16719, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.285752, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026952, "excess_performance": -0.152577, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0158, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012736, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16719, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065369, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092858, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069136, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026952, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.907856, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 240216, "relative_activity": 4.153733, "balance": 2.907856, "dry_up": 1.319358, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026246, "annualized_volatility": 0.155832, "from_high_reference": -0.088708, "from_low_reference": 0.16537 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.368621, "fair_value_reference": 13.802383, "structural_low": 15.49, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011421, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014972, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.097267, "worst_return": -0.084768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028176, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.055617, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.064331, "worst_return": -0.028734, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.074279, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.038637, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114809, "worst_return": 0.033749, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07914, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034682, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088523, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.122153, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002958, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"fair_value": 13.737386, "relative_strength": -7.620943, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.694605, "energy": 59.803396, "activity_lines": [ 16.00623, 16.1309, 16.262689, 16.346514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.7093, "volume": 16470, "typical_volume": 45571.15, "trend": 16.358712, "fair_value": 13.75625, "relative_strength": -7.65527, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.488613, "energy": 66.309321, "activity_lines": [ 15.873964, 16.042364, 16.204476, 16.304834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.6347, "volume": 33027, "typical_volume": 46270.8, "trend": 16.361468, "fair_value": 13.777124, "relative_strength": -8.977343, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.559384, "energy": 72.524651, "activity_lines": [ 15.766133, 15.948695, 16.144447, 16.258123 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.11, "volume": 240216, "typical_volume": 57831.35, "trend": 16.368621, "fair_value": 13.802383, "relative_strength": -9.285752, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.445015, "energy": 57.210927, "activity_lines": [ 15.85476, 15.952836, 16.133081, 16.2419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }