{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d5b26b9-c5df-4aed-b115-4366b66faab9", "symbol": "BN4", "name": "Keppel Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.572, "architecture_energy": 13.836, "architecture_maturity": 12.177, "architecture_confidence": 62.546, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.87, "rotation_up": 39.69, "upward_expansion": 41.66, "deceleration": 32.39, "rotation_down": 21.34, "downward_expansion": 38.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.347333, 11.251818, 11.132966, 11.259288 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.18, "trend_reference": 11.370936, "distance_from_trend": -0.016792, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.681311, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.455481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.195187, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021576, "excess_performance": -0.176411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016792, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034255, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.455481, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056007, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101952, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153863, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021576, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.071891, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20179100, "relative_activity": 1.153143, "balance": 1.071891, "dry_up": 1.192134, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04486, "annualized_volatility": 0.237296, "from_high_reference": -0.140463, "from_low_reference": 0.385506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.370936, "fair_value_reference": 7.681311, "structural_low": 10.07, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.023256, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.018216, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.074763, "worst_return": -0.045956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.084142, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.072554, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.182946, "worst_return": -0.086637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057247, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.007725, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.447003, "worst_return": 0.007591, 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11.226, 11.064545, 11.09848, 11.245761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.45, "volume": 11312200, "typical_volume": 17622207.0, "trend": 11.297863, "fair_value": 7.614982, "relative_strength": -6.116631, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.23693, "energy": 19.029147, "activity_lines": [ 11.311333, 11.155818, 11.115422, 11.258561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.47, "volume": 32488900, "typical_volume": 17818732.0, "trend": 11.340869, "fair_value": 7.649143, "relative_strength": -6.712711, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.806359, "energy": 23.29487, "activity_lines": [ 11.391333, 11.235273, 11.137102, 11.269667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.18, "volume": 20179100, "typical_volume": 17499222.6, "trend": 11.370936, "fair_value": 7.681311, "relative_strength": -10.195187, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.571669, "energy": 13.836354, "activity_lines": [ 11.347333, 11.251818, 11.132966, 11.259288 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }