{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d62767b-1edd-42ee-abc3-7e98043c2225", "symbol": "QRMI", "name": "GLOBAL X NASDAQ 100 RISK MANAGED INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -3.277, "architecture_energy": 15.029, "architecture_maturity": 17.479, "architecture_confidence": 47.873, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.29, "rotation_up": 20.87, "upward_expansion": 18.41, "deceleration": 63.87, "rotation_down": 52.03, "downward_expansion": 38.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.157383, 15.205811, 15.232882, 15.197384 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.2898, "trend_reference": 15.180105, "distance_from_trend": 0.007226, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.085492, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.0855, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.170293, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.003238, "excess_performance": -0.184216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007226, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003253, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.0855, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013196, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031928, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003238, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.208718, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62924, "relative_activity": 1.641853, "balance": 2.208718, "dry_up": 1.306073, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015449, "annualized_volatility": 0.066218, "from_high_reference": -0.015138, "from_low_reference": 0.074956 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.180105, "fair_value_reference": 14.085492, "structural_low": 14.594257, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.005583, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.023871, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.016273, "worst_return": -0.024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008606, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053792, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.054748, "worst_return": -0.010708, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.05474, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.090164, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.061258, "worst_return": 0.048222, 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0.069188, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011283, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01588, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017718, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036622, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", 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35.565088, "activity_lines": [ 15.343623, 15.327054, 15.219714, 15.198453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.263279, "volume": 42802, "typical_volume": 39799.65, "trend": 15.188715, "fair_value": 14.010586, "relative_strength": -11.466409, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.597541, "energy": 27.130846, "activity_lines": [ 15.312028, 15.321964, 15.229925, 15.203693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.406852, "volume": 19241, "typical_volume": 38119.0, "trend": 15.199862, "fair_value": 14.02667, "relative_strength": -11.889632, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.258407, "energy": 28.120991, "activity_lines": [ 15.338496, 15.340148, 15.253123, 15.217767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.055643, "volume": 68729, "typical_volume": 39821.8, "trend": 15.195379, "fair_value": 14.04118, "relative_strength": -9.878839, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.204128, "energy": 13.601318, "activity_lines": [ 15.239923, 15.290453, 15.241895, 15.208462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.02, "volume": 20513, "typical_volume": 38580.5, "trend": 15.186986, "fair_value": 14.054494, "relative_strength": -8.381768, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.72444, "energy": 16.298927, "activity_lines": [ 15.154211, 15.23771, 15.227946, 15.197147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.0834, "volume": 48055, "typical_volume": 39453.95, "trend": 15.182548, "fair_value": 14.068944, "relative_strength": -8.208434, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.980118, "energy": 20.007981, "activity_lines": [ 15.116061, 15.200748, 15.220627, 15.190464 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.2898, "volume": 62924, "typical_volume": 38325.0, "trend": 15.180105, "fair_value": 14.085492, "relative_strength": -11.170293, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.276821, "energy": 15.029464, "activity_lines": [ 15.157383, 15.205811, 15.232882, 15.197384 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }