{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d65164d-1251-42d7-8a5e-7d4d43b1c140", "symbol": "GSY", "name": "INVESCO ACTIVELY MANAGED ETF TRUST ULTRA SHORT DURATION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.478, "architecture_energy": 94.765, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.92, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.44, "rotation_up": 86.35, "upward_expansion": 99.8, "deceleration": 39.06, "rotation_down": 10.2, "downward_expansion": 21.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.1317, 50.07565, 50.007477, 49.944513 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 50.2, "trend_reference": 49.847551, "distance_from_trend": 0.007071, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.145653, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.064785, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.70056, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.01176, "excess_performance": -0.113865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007071, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005324, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.064785, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097006, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000434, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01176, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 18.155771, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7540885, "relative_activity": 2.030998, "balance": 18.155771, "dry_up": 1.088645, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001384, "annualized_volatility": 0.007646, "from_high_reference": -0.000199, "from_low_reference": 0.035407 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.847551, "fair_value_reference": 47.145653, "structural_low": 49.626374, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 53, "median_return": 0.003797, "positive_rate": 0.90566, "directional_follow_through": 0.90566, "median_excess_return": -0.015765, "regime_survival": 0.981132, "best_return": 0.007289, "worst_return": -0.001202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.012722, "positive_rate": 0.9375, "directional_follow_through": 0.9375, "median_excess_return": -0.04715, "regime_survival": 0.9375, "best_return": 0.018229, "worst_return": -0.002743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.025545, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.088527, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.031043, "worst_return": -0.0023, "sufficient": true }, 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49.975692, 49.920954, 49.857391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.071788, "volume": 2430091, "typical_volume": 3655813.3, "trend": 49.773485, "fair_value": 47.012198, "relative_strength": -7.110222, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.231495, "energy": 63.075611, "activity_lines": [ 50.017527, 49.997202, 49.940216, 49.878264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.08, "volume": 2540621, "typical_volume": 3629931.65, "trend": 49.797703, "fair_value": 47.056688, "relative_strength": -6.32403, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.03541, "energy": 83.440309, "activity_lines": [ 50.047283, 50.01643, 49.958674, 49.898039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.14, "volume": 3656510, "typical_volume": 3551105.6, "trend": 49.821954, "fair_value": 47.101118, "relative_strength": -6.940643, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.852247, "energy": 91.454861, "activity_lines": [ 50.08542, 50.042641, 49.981221, 49.920123 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.2, "volume": 7540885, "typical_volume": 3712896.5, "trend": 49.847551, "fair_value": 47.145653, "relative_strength": -9.70056, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.477904, "energy": 94.764901, "activity_lines": [ 50.1317, 50.07565, 50.007477, 49.944513 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }