{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d69f4c4-b9d8-43a3-9e28-03970b0e2710", "symbol": "2890", "name": "SinoPac Financial Holdings Company Limited", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.407, "architecture_energy": 65.705, "architecture_maturity": 54.4, "architecture_confidence": 80.72, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.79, "rotation_up": 68.32, "upward_expansion": 87.08, "deceleration": 64.61, "rotation_down": 19.38, "downward_expansion": 11.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.705104, 38.981291, 36.090095, 34.451216 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.549999, "trend_reference": 32.431278, "distance_from_trend": 0.250336, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.484429, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.80347, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.162478, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.442119, "excess_performance": 0.000747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.250336, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135045, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.80347, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.40932, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011625, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.246735, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.442119, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.665282, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106335400, "relative_activity": 0.550567, "balance": 2.665282, "dry_up": 0.913019, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061897, "annualized_volatility": 0.315354, "from_high_reference": -0.01218, "from_low_reference": 0.837689 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.431278, "fair_value_reference": 22.484429, "structural_low": 27.30816, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.027627, "positive_rate": 0.675, "directional_follow_through": 0.675, "median_excess_return": 0.021809, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.367698, "worst_return": -0.089202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.099068, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.000858, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.240275, "worst_return": -0.08676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.180895, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.00526, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.415144, "worst_return": -0.117915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 38.549999, "volume": 290589078, "typical_volume": 191152237.15, "trend": 31.190533, "fair_value": 21.997744, "relative_strength": 0.422844, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.225199, "energy": 78.980191, "activity_lines": [ 38.261362, 36.803276, 34.081911, 32.820375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.599998, "volume": 204912944, "typical_volume": 195473577.35, "trend": 31.624062, "fair_value": 22.165396, "relative_strength": 7.132003, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.189124, "energy": 71.761859, "activity_lines": [ 39.102089, 37.850983, 34.851273, 33.427437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.950001, "volume": 103517583, "typical_volume": 192977060.25, "trend": 32.007358, "fair_value": 22.320168, "relative_strength": 0.472878, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.498001, "energy": 64.266329, "activity_lines": [ 39.173909, 38.36482, 35.414269, 33.900078 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 40.549999, "volume": 106335400, "typical_volume": 193137992.4, "trend": 32.431278, "fair_value": 22.484429, "relative_strength": 1.162478, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.407093, "energy": 65.705157, "activity_lines": [ 39.705104, 38.981291, 36.090095, 34.451216 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }