{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d6a9cc3-47fc-4c91-b6c4-836f65e1530b", "symbol": "3085", "name": "Newretail Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.87, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.34, "architecture_energy": 17.663, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.504, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.89, "rotation_up": 20.27, "upward_expansion": 5.25, "deceleration": 52.53, "rotation_down": 36.54, "downward_expansion": 64.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.066667, 12.076364, 12.126905, 12.204839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.2, "trend_reference": 12.456667, "distance_from_trend": -0.020605, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.628846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.219392, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.460871, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.086142, "excess_performance": -0.527514, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020605, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062704, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.219392, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010222, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.374609, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06826, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086142, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.580454, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12032, "relative_activity": 0.201106, "balance": 1.580454, "dry_up": 0.185591, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082598, "annualized_volatility": 0.386837, "from_high_reference": -0.306818, "from_low_reference": 0.12963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.456667, "fair_value_reference": 15.628846, "structural_low": 10.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.031538, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.059303, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 1.538168, "worst_return": -0.365782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.005935, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.169766, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.375587, "worst_return": -0.325949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.202484, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.234742, "worst_return": -0.474074, "sufficient": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-12-09", "end": "2023-01-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-03", "end": "2023-07-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.113636, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.493827, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068345, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-13", 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"typical_volume": 71762.4, "trend": 12.618333, "fair_value": 15.780128, "relative_strength": -37.513666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.827271, "energy": 16.976394, "activity_lines": [ 12.15, 12.172727, 12.185476, 12.307312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.1, "volume": 11000, "typical_volume": 67487.35, "trend": 12.54, "fair_value": 15.730128, "relative_strength": -36.56335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.440434, "energy": 13.096347, "activity_lines": [ 12.163333, 12.158182, 12.17619, 12.273871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.75, "volume": 19358, "typical_volume": 66541.95, "trend": 12.48, "fair_value": 15.680449, "relative_strength": -38.760499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.777145, "energy": 20.620949, "activity_lines": [ 12.026667, 12.07, 12.130952, 12.222903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.2, "volume": 12032, "typical_volume": 59829.1, "trend": 12.456667, "fair_value": 15.628846, "relative_strength": -37.460871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.340452, "energy": 17.663456, "activity_lines": [ 12.066667, 12.076364, 12.126905, 12.204839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }