{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d6ee1a5-1e1d-4e49-bbee-6696371f14fd", "symbol": "URA", "name": "GLOBAL X FDS URANIUM ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.565, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.93, "architecture_energy": 53.191, "architecture_maturity": 16.827, "architecture_confidence": 90.105, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.11, "rotation_up": 17.05, "upward_expansion": 8.93, "deceleration": 45.05, "rotation_down": 63.76, "downward_expansion": 84.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.395333, 42.163273, 45.215524, 46.870774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 44.91, "trend_reference": 49.1, "distance_from_trend": -0.085336, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.6571, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.33434, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.193274, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138995, "excess_performance": -0.26462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085336, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009145, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.33434, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.417223, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151933, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257597, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138995, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.668237, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20668656, "relative_activity": 1.182365, "balance": 0.668237, "dry_up": 0.940187, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105074, "annualized_volatility": 0.4389, "from_high_reference": -0.278902, "from_low_reference": 0.321453 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.1, "fair_value_reference": 33.6571, "structural_low": 37.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008592, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.016098, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.308024, "worst_return": -0.13622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.176523, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.088008, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.4708, "worst_return": 0.007289, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.236857, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.172363, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.9772, "worst_return": -0.045846, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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42.97, "volume": 12284013, "typical_volume": 18650557.0, "trend": 49.809312, "fair_value": 33.112324, "relative_strength": -17.56986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.807398, "energy": 62.649399, "activity_lines": [ 43.974667, 45.574182, 48.146429, 49.170385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.73, "volume": 14179328, "typical_volume": 18149867.8, "trend": 49.641664, "fair_value": 33.239122, "relative_strength": -24.310967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.331732, "energy": 77.339134, "activity_lines": [ 42.012, 44.011818, 47.141762, 48.455591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.89, "volume": 15064941, "typical_volume": 17542839.1, "trend": 49.513, "fair_value": 33.371733, "relative_strength": -21.37941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.815807, "energy": 75.576308, "activity_lines": [ 40.888667, 42.959455, 46.321905, 47.826452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.07, "volume": 15827806, "typical_volume": 17390439.45, "trend": 49.28, "fair_value": 33.497295, "relative_strength": -23.681591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.10027, "energy": 75.431691, "activity_lines": [ 40.018, 41.940545, 45.466286, 47.15271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.91, "volume": 20668656, "typical_volume": 17480768.35, "trend": 49.1, "fair_value": 33.6571, "relative_strength": -15.193274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.930111, "energy": 53.19099, "activity_lines": [ 41.395333, 42.163273, 45.215524, 46.870774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }