{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d70b75e-b7cf-4225-bf1b-54278ce99922", "symbol": "R4", "name": "Renta 4 Banco, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.087, "architecture_energy": 62.693, "architecture_maturity": 27.929, "architecture_confidence": 64.204, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.3, "rotation_up": 68.6, "upward_expansion": 82.77, "deceleration": 49.22, "rotation_down": 14.41, "downward_expansion": 16.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.323334, 19.211818, 19.182876, 19.141252 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.5, "trend_reference": 19.040898, "distance_from_trend": 0.024111, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.668919, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.426594, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.142755, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039645, "excess_performance": -0.084786, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024111, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00554, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.426594, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062242, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121428, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072963, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039645, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.805973, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21905, "relative_activity": 1.368143, "balance": 5.805973, "dry_up": 2.807504, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012229, "annualized_volatility": 0.114458, "from_high_reference": -0.03738, "from_low_reference": 0.189118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.040898, "fair_value_reference": 13.668919, "structural_low": 17.473077, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.027531, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.045664, "worst_return": -0.030992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010297, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.060273, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.075157, "worst_return": -0.028926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.039179, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.009762, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.06308, "worst_return": 0.020202, "sufficient": false }, { 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"volume": 138561, "typical_volume": 17730.65, "trend": 19.011154, "fair_value": 13.472118, "relative_strength": -10.356462, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.731902, "energy": 13.149493, "activity_lines": [ 19.056667, 19.068182, 19.120568, 19.078214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.1, "volume": 11776, "typical_volume": 15032.2, "trend": 19.032479, "fair_value": 13.535926, "relative_strength": -11.972885, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.25747, "energy": 10.774284, "activity_lines": [ 19.07, 19.072727, 19.119719, 19.083946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.450001, "volume": 7559, "typical_volume": 15111.9, "trend": 19.029274, "fair_value": 13.601978, "relative_strength": -10.884842, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.318003, "energy": 37.478797, "activity_lines": [ 19.2, 19.140909, 19.150568, 19.110882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.5, "volume": 21905, "typical_volume": 16010.75, "trend": 19.040898, "fair_value": 13.668919, "relative_strength": -12.142755, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.087149, "energy": 62.692574, "activity_lines": [ 19.323334, 19.211818, 19.182876, 19.141252 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }