{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d78c98a-dffc-4c87-89f0-fb27ed850274", "symbol": "FAD", "name": "FIRST TRUST MULTI CAP GROWTH ALPHADEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.002, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.421, "architecture_energy": 23.684, "architecture_maturity": 63.208, "architecture_confidence": 79.084, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.76, "rotation_up": 26.1, "upward_expansion": 55.56, "deceleration": 91.04, "rotation_down": 28.11, "downward_expansion": 19.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 186.98412, 188.382909, 186.461635, 181.894875 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 191.69, "trend_reference": 176.638849, "distance_from_trend": 0.085209, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 140.088684, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.368347, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.924346, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.137851, "excess_performance": -0.049603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085209, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053127, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.368347, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006768, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009243, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032359, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137851, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.550407, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84280, "relative_activity": 1.376987, "balance": 0.550407, "dry_up": 1.242629, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043713, "annualized_volatility": 0.175955, "from_high_reference": -0.042603, "from_low_reference": 0.285644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 176.638849, "fair_value_reference": 140.088684, "structural_low": 149.989317, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.020574, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.011233, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.094825, "worst_return": -0.044794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014744, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.016627, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.059275, "worst_return": -0.169564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.137279, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.032408, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162537, "worst_return": -0.074461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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139.019992, "relative_strength": 0.539452, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.240216, "energy": 27.451994, "activity_lines": [ 187.19274, 188.728057, 184.958766, 180.336379 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 183.56, "volume": 67176, "typical_volume": 59082.15, "trend": 175.87241, "fair_value": 139.524772, "relative_strength": -0.270546, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.336232, "energy": 21.892456, "activity_lines": [ 185.382847, 187.813967, 185.382427, 180.874386 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 191.69, "volume": 84280, "typical_volume": 61206.1, "trend": 176.638849, "fair_value": 140.088684, "relative_strength": -0.924346, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.420999, "energy": 23.683564, "activity_lines": [ 186.98412, 188.382909, 186.461635, 181.894875 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }