{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d7cc27b-aae6-4291-9b01-fbb61fe242e8", "symbol": "DDX", "name": "DEFINED DURATION 10 ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.884, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.488, "architecture_energy": 48.227, "architecture_maturity": 41.409, "architecture_confidence": 75.022, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.08, "rotation_up": 53.14, "upward_expansion": 79.4, "deceleration": 57.99, "rotation_down": 24.96, "downward_expansion": 6.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.158107, 25.125486, 25.019044, 24.904167 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.3589, "trend_reference": 24.77992, "distance_from_trend": 0.023365, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.349677, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.134643, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.186002, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.026331, "excess_performance": -0.099294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023365, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01509, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.134643, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000309, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07186, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002672, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026331, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.677943, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4459, "relative_activity": 0.163412, "balance": 1.677943, "dry_up": 0.878106, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008999, "annualized_volatility": 0.064654, "from_high_reference": -0.000434, "from_low_reference": 0.101804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.77992, "fair_value_reference": 22.349677, "structural_low": 23.969302, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.008316, "positive_rate": 0.766667, "directional_follow_through": 0.766667, "median_excess_return": -0.011023, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.039788, "worst_return": -0.038668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.017555, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.051736, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.044975, "worst_return": -0.031661, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033785, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.072564, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.066561, "worst_return": -0.026584, "sufficient": true }, { 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25.053685, 24.912566, 24.819803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.9975, "volume": 28284, "typical_volume": 25219.6, "trend": 24.715313, "fair_value": 22.281789, "relative_strength": -4.640224, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.675836, "energy": 33.319005, "activity_lines": [ 25.055004, 25.055829, 24.936311, 24.839831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.1, "volume": 50416, "typical_volume": 27431.4, "trend": 24.746385, "fair_value": 22.314611, "relative_strength": -5.101965, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.064711, "energy": 33.112607, "activity_lines": [ 25.063127, 25.069747, 24.967363, 24.86465 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.3589, "volume": 4459, "typical_volume": 27286.85, "trend": 24.77992, "fair_value": 22.349677, "relative_strength": -7.186002, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.488093, "energy": 48.226844, "activity_lines": [ 25.158107, 25.125486, 25.019044, 24.904167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }