{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d8278fe-aa5d-4031-8944-9143a87ae896", "symbol": "SVOL", "name": "SIMPLIFY EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS SIMPLIFY VOLATILITY PREMIUM ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.082, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.868, "architecture_energy": 31.255, "architecture_maturity": 4.052, "architecture_confidence": 45.443, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.63, "rotation_up": 52.33, "upward_expansion": 53.25, "deceleration": 30.29, "rotation_down": 26.64, "downward_expansion": 11.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.864329, 15.803908, 15.681774, 15.592014 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.0, "trend_reference": 15.599844, "distance_from_trend": 0.025651, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.180755, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053966, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.412779, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.002496, "excess_performance": -0.128121, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025651, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000594, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053966, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034219, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025125, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002496, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.03515, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1073364, "relative_activity": 0.716505, "balance": 2.03515, "dry_up": 0.817232, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023642, "annualized_volatility": 0.105888, "from_high_reference": -0.032826, "from_low_reference": 0.128464 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.599844, "fair_value_reference": 15.180755, "structural_low": 14.542155, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.011368, "positive_rate": 0.677419, "directional_follow_through": 0.677419, "median_excess_return": -0.006109, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.047587, "worst_return": -0.095349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.032333, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.019409, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.11017, "worst_return": -0.078577, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.060079, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.066274, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.14401, "worst_return": -0.116481, 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.926679, "volume": 951667, "typical_volume": 1722208.3, "trend": 15.644622, "fair_value": 15.128435, "relative_strength": -7.187189, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.169542, "energy": 25.12594, "activity_lines": [ 15.749825, 15.698852, 15.526407, 15.538967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.789126, "volume": 975817, "typical_volume": 1663489.1, "trend": 15.636584, "fair_value": 15.141199, "relative_strength": -6.408894, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.376961, "energy": 21.363218, "activity_lines": [ 15.770131, 15.727412, 15.563138, 15.54829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.74, "volume": 1049872, "typical_volume": 1543913.3, "trend": 15.622401, "fair_value": 15.153382, "relative_strength": -5.988891, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.86002, "energy": 26.602085, "activity_lines": [ 15.766201, 15.738044, 15.595097, 15.554962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.81, "volume": 1797982, "typical_volume": 1531484.95, "trend": 15.613299, "fair_value": 15.166595, "relative_strength": -6.485105, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.342925, "energy": 29.277709, "activity_lines": [ 15.796739, 15.755407, 15.6312, 15.567065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.0, "volume": 1073364, "typical_volume": 1498054.95, "trend": 15.599844, "fair_value": 15.180755, "relative_strength": -8.412779, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.86763, "energy": 31.254588, "activity_lines": [ 15.864329, 15.803908, 15.681774, 15.592014 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }