{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d8d8c6a-5e89-4378-9007-e72fd5511df8", "symbol": "SSQE", "name": "Leverage Shares -1x Short Square ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.284, "architecture_energy": 63.46, "architecture_maturity": 50.484, "architecture_confidence": 92.902, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.18, "rotation_up": 23.62, "upward_expansion": 11.35, "deceleration": 49.85, "rotation_down": 62.58, "downward_expansion": 87.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.220667, 2.269273, 2.372619, 2.523183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.2, "trend_reference": 2.731667, "distance_from_trend": -0.194631, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.93771, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.4413, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.063076, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.356725, "excess_performance": -0.40796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.194631, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086908, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.4413, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009577, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.280631, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015964, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.356725, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066084, "annualized_volatility": 0.511213, "from_high_reference": -0.425587, "from_low_reference": 0.057692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.731667, "fair_value_reference": 3.93771, "structural_low": 2.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.014984, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.008895, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.250653, "worst_return": -0.281239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.039452, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.091061, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.596897, "worst_return": -0.231906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020621, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03885, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.226567, "worst_return": -0.10425, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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238.45, "trend": 2.948, "fair_value": 4.081493, "relative_strength": -19.0411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.079189, "energy": 44.493611, "activity_lines": [ 2.526, 2.52, 2.702429, 2.819634 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 2.44, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 238.45, "trend": 2.917333, "fair_value": 4.060003, "relative_strength": -20.646408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.160157, "energy": 52.989639, "activity_lines": [ 2.494667, 2.500364, 2.659571, 2.78686 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 2.34, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14.6, "trend": 2.895667, "fair_value": 4.039899, "relative_strength": -24.237461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.503366, "energy": 55.158109, "activity_lines": [ 2.439333, 2.471091, 2.610714, 2.749613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14.6, "trend": 2.863, "fair_value": 4.020307, "relative_strength": -27.641245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.497689, "energy": 77.690185, "activity_lines": [ 2.373333, 2.428182, 2.558429, 2.707957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.29, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14.6, "trend": 2.835, "fair_value": 4.005817, "relative_strength": -24.416025, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.321522, "energy": 82.254089, "activity_lines": [ 2.326, 2.398, 2.517476, 2.670989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.23, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10.6, "trend": 2.808333, "fair_value": 3.990804, "relative_strength": -26.530671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.294996, "energy": 88.254212, "activity_lines": [ 2.278667, 2.360364, 2.47681, 2.631957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.28, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10.3, "trend": 2.783333, "fair_value": 3.976807, "relative_strength": -25.458509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.585876, "energy": 82.054882, "activity_lines": [ 2.268667, 2.334545, 2.444524, 2.597871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.18, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.7, "trend": 2.754333, "fair_value": 3.959833, "relative_strength": -29.03242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.248166, "energy": 77.633975, "activity_lines": [ 2.236, 2.296, 2.405381, 2.558946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.4, "trend": 2.731667, "fair_value": 3.93771, "relative_strength": -28.063076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.284012, "energy": 63.459844, "activity_lines": [ 2.220667, 2.269273, 2.372619, 2.523183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }