{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d900277-9118-4c4e-bb6f-48b85a8a0c21", "symbol": "DXLG", "name": "Destination XL Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.708, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.291, "architecture_energy": 19.124, "architecture_maturity": 25.246, "architecture_confidence": 42.983, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.76, "rotation_up": 17.93, "upward_expansion": 16.12, "deceleration": 57.69, "rotation_down": 51.48, "downward_expansion": 43.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.615427, 0.632978, 0.65174, 0.63542 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.6402, "trend_reference": 0.630383, "distance_from_trend": 0.015573, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.26518, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.717373, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.882494, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.02089, "excess_performance": -0.166564, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015573, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14476, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.717373, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030182, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.338825, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09808, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02089, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.825103, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 172358, "relative_activity": 0.33069, "balance": 1.825103, "dry_up": 0.420328, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158756, "annualized_volatility": 0.792438, "from_high_reference": -0.59481, "from_low_reference": 0.471724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.630383, "fair_value_reference": 2.26518, "structural_low": 0.435, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.072241, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.026102, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.439252, "worst_return": -0.254237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.173352, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.149939, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.588785, "worst_return": -0.649964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.385915, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.469304, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.326226, "worst_return": -0.492857, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160563, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073826, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.182143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.271795, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.18254, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", 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"fair_value": 2.321309, "relative_strength": -34.062736, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.941694, "energy": 13.057419, "activity_lines": [ 0.634627, 0.657733, 0.657457, 0.641122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5637, "volume": 317699, "typical_volume": 636693.65, "trend": 0.640493, "fair_value": 2.292999, "relative_strength": -39.863726, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.021605, "energy": 28.846092, "activity_lines": [ 0.608973, 0.636798, 0.651131, 0.635439 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6402, "volume": 172358, "typical_volume": 521206.4, "trend": 0.630383, "fair_value": 2.26518, "relative_strength": -33.882494, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.291173, "energy": 19.123563, "activity_lines": [ 0.615427, 0.632978, 0.65174, 0.63542 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }