{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "0d92966d-d987-4dfb-a506-8b0fdd9484bf",
    "symbol": "XDJP",
    "name": "Xtrackers Nikkei 225 UCITS ETF 1D",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 33.758,
    "architecture_energy": 29.415,
    "architecture_maturity": 66.938,
    "architecture_confidence": 90.688,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 40.7,
        "rotation_up": 22.85,
        "upward_expansion": 55.85,
        "deceleration": 91.16,
        "rotation_down": 35.98,
        "downward_expansion": 19.51
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 3232.5,
    "trend_reference": 2940.691528,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.099231,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 2258.347401,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.431356,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 7.790014,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.18936,
    "excess_performance": 0.138125,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.099231,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.089362,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.431356,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.000938,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0779,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.08909,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.18936,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.036384,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 468925,
      "relative_activity": 2.136569,
      "balance": 1.036384,
      "dry_up": 2.372106,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.050616,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.278276,
      "from_high_reference": -0.366456,
      "from_low_reference": 0.493501
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 2940.691528,
      "fair_value_reference": 2258.347401,
      "structural_low": 2470.0,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": -0.00107,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013551,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.105878,
        "worst_return": -0.04518,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
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        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016512,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.071957,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.006266,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019657,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
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        "worst_return": -0.096482,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
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        "worst_return": -0.121876,
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      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
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      {
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "relative_strength": 17.651945,
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 2226.363658,
        "relative_strength": 16.033731,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 3061.5,
        "volume": 498167,
        "typical_volume": 154313.25,
        "trend": 2881.485644,
        "fair_value": 2234.059525,
        "relative_strength": 6.105145,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 50.567219,
        "energy": 46.268592,
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          3257.566667,
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          3133.980952,
          3024.185659
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 3075.0,
        "volume": 503696,
        "typical_volume": 173765.4,
        "trend": 2901.398625,
        "fair_value": 2241.60165,
        "relative_strength": 4.857064,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.56145,
        "energy": 26.368689,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 3048.0,
        "volume": 611691,
        "typical_volume": 199609.65,
        "trend": 2920.136621,
        "fair_value": 2249.335924,
        "relative_strength": 2.332457,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.196392,
        "energy": 28.937652,
        "activity_lines": [
          3112.4,
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          3146.02619,
          3046.12861
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 3232.5,
        "volume": 468925,
        "typical_volume": 219475.75,
        "trend": 2940.691528,
        "fair_value": 2258.347401,
        "relative_strength": 7.790014,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 33.757819,
        "energy": 29.415083,
        "activity_lines": [
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          3066.281086
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}