{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d935f2f-277f-4a17-928c-fdeea7fb6a91", "symbol": "DVN", "name": "Devon Energy Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.997, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.587, "architecture_energy": 16.33, "architecture_maturity": 11.054, "architecture_confidence": 53.824, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.1, "rotation_up": 39.6, "upward_expansion": 31.5, "deceleration": 42.64, "rotation_down": 25.79, "downward_expansion": 24.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 766.286662, 758.832781, 774.129223, 784.381621 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 738.619995, "trend_reference": 780.169398, "distance_from_trend": -0.053257, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 748.660032, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.013411, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.312723, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.012116, "excess_performance": 0.066782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053257, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045019, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.013411, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069689, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003127, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048143, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012116, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.510833, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9, "relative_activity": 0.00253, "balance": 1.510833, "dry_up": 0.039774, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051445, "annualized_volatility": 0.466985, "from_high_reference": -0.221957, "from_low_reference": 0.255911 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 780.169398, "fair_value_reference": 748.660032, "structural_low": 700.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.032724, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.060972, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.249981, "worst_return": -0.227049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.070689, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.165085, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.209663, "worst_return": -0.205293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.111688, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.181835, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.377352, "worst_return": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010404, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010481, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013413, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05816, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", 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"relative_strength": 9.527201, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.166042, "energy": 11.380911, "activity_lines": [ 766.533333, 761.199721, 782.9603, 786.669653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 775.799988, "volume": 273, "typical_volume": 4671.35, "trend": 777.042199, "fair_value": 749.429162, "relative_strength": 5.477128, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.174841, "energy": 12.13885, "activity_lines": [ 773.999996, 763.1982, 780.198094, 786.860472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 738.619995, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 3557.6, "trend": 780.169398, "fair_value": 748.660032, "relative_strength": 0.312723, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.58703, "energy": 16.329859, "activity_lines": [ 766.286662, 758.832781, 774.129223, 784.381621 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }