{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0d9973d4-91aa-4c45-be93-7eabf3ab4c82", "symbol": "ANAU", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY II Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.748, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.128, "architecture_energy": 30.011, "architecture_maturity": 68.633, "architecture_confidence": 84.484, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.72, "rotation_up": 29.27, "upward_expansion": 58.72, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 31.37, "downward_expansion": 20.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.113666, 25.316, 25.235976, 24.51171 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 25.879999, "trend_reference": 23.625833, "distance_from_trend": 0.095411, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.517011, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.397634, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.860183, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.197871, "excess_performance": 0.114987, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095411, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053275, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.397634, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051039, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028602, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125413, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.197871, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.696192, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 286046, "relative_activity": 1.384838, "balance": 0.696192, "dry_up": 1.650217, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033513, "annualized_volatility": 0.196407, "from_high_reference": -0.022659, "from_low_reference": 0.295425 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.625833, "fair_value_reference": 18.517011, "structural_low": 20.084999, "invalidation": "A 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0.286478, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.2864, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.286478, "worst_return": 0.286478, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029328, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020067, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05645, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012323, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067906, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.146465, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069913, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.075823, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021434, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004294, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"relative_strength": 4.998624, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.50322, "energy": 55.007685, "activity_lines": [ 25.811333, 25.848455, 24.904857, 24.104667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.84, "volume": 230661, "typical_volume": 173908.4, "trend": 23.345833, "fair_value": 18.29121, "relative_strength": 0.197394, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.103926, "energy": 40.366126, "activity_lines": [ 25.475333, 25.674636, 24.998524, 24.207237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.690001, "volume": 497147, "typical_volume": 185232.4, "trend": 23.431833, "fair_value": 18.362915, "relative_strength": -0.335467, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.506116, "energy": 29.713156, "activity_lines": [ 25.153667, 25.481728, 25.062953, 24.293957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.434999, "volume": 349592, "typical_volume": 198774.7, "trend": 23.508, "fair_value": 18.434562, "relative_strength": -1.476482, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.037079, "energy": 27.007736, "activity_lines": [ 24.861, 25.255364, 25.088286, 24.358678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.879999, "volume": 286046, "typical_volume": 206555.6, "trend": 23.625833, "fair_value": 18.517011, "relative_strength": 2.860183, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.127667, "energy": 30.010672, "activity_lines": [ 25.113666, 25.316, 25.235976, 24.51171 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }